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␈↓ ↓H␈↓Comments␈α↔on␈α↔"The␈α↔Scoial␈α↔Framework␈α↔of␈α↔the␈α↔Information␈α↔Society:␈α↔The␈α↔Coming␈α↔Age␈α↔of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Communication and Control" - by Daniel Bell

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_To␈α∞an␈α∞unreconstructed␈α
technologist,␈α∞Professor␈α∞Bell's␈α
article␈α∞raises␈α∞more␈α
issues␈α∞than␈α∞I␈α
have
␈↓ ↓H␈↓time for or the editors will have space for.  I shall consider two major ones.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_First␈α
I␈αwould␈α
like␈α
to␈αstate␈α
the␈αcase␈α
for␈α
the␈αold-fashioned␈α
view␈α
that␈αscience␈α
and␈αinvention␈α
are
␈↓ ↓H␈↓progress␈αin␈αthemselves.␈α Namely,␈αthey␈αgive␈αindividuals,␈αgroups,␈αand␈αsociety␈αas␈αa␈αwhole␈αmore␈αtools
␈↓ ↓H␈↓for␈αdealing␈αwith␈αwhatever␈αproblems␈αthey␈αimagine␈αthemselves␈αto␈αhave.␈α Since␈αall␈αthe␈αold␈αways␈αare
␈↓ ↓H␈↓still␈α∞potentially␈α
available,␈α∞a␈α
well␈α∞organized␈α
society␈α∞should␈α
always␈α∞achieve␈α
a␈α∞result␈α
no␈α∞worse␈α
than
␈↓ ↓H␈↓could␈α∃be␈α∃achieved␈α∃without␈α∃them.␈α∃ However,␈α∃when␈α∃some␈α∃people␈α∃take␈α∃advantage␈α∃of␈α⊗a␈α∃new
␈↓ ↓H␈↓opportunity,␈αany␈αlosers␈αand␈αeven␈αsmall␈αwinners␈αwill␈αcomplain.␈α To␈αwhatever␈αextent␈αthe␈α
complaints
␈↓ ↓H␈↓are␈α
justified,␈α
the␈α
fault␈α
lies␈αwith␈α
the␈α
politicians,␈α
the␈α
dictators,␈αthe␈α
WASPs␈α
or␈α
any␈α
other␈αscapegoat
␈↓ ↓H␈↓you␈α
choose.␈α∞ They␈α
might␈α∞equally␈α
well␈α
take␈α∞unfair␈α
advantage␈α∞of␈α
a␈α∞non-technological␈α
opportunity
␈↓ ↓H␈↓like the discovery of America.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_It␈α⊂is␈α⊂argued␈α⊂that␈α⊂technologies␈α⊂have␈α⊂momentum,␈α⊂and␈α⊂people␈α⊂won't␈α⊂stop␈α⊂using␈α⊂them␈α⊂even
␈↓ ↓H␈↓when␈αthey␈αare␈αbad,␈αbut␈αsuch␈αcomplaints,␈αto␈αthe␈αextent␈αthat␈αthey␈αare␈αvalid,␈αshould␈αbe␈αaddressed␈αto
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the organization of society.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Actually␈α
I␈α
would␈α
argue␈αthat␈α
new␈α
technology␈α
is␈αnot␈α
today␈α
the␈α
main␈αcause␈α
of␈α
change␈α
in␈αour
␈↓ ↓H␈↓society.␈α Present␈αsocial␈αand␈αpolitical␈αchanges␈αare␈αmainly␈αeconomic␈αand␈αsocial␈αreverberations␈αof␈αthe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓technological␈αchanges␈αof␈αthe␈αnineteenth␈αcentury.␈α The␈αpace␈αof␈αtechnological␈αchange␈αaffecting␈αdaily
␈↓ ↓H␈↓life␈α∪has␈α∪slowed,␈α∪because␈α∪the␈α∀mine␈α∪of␈α∪easy␈α∪mechanical␈α∪innovation␈α∪cost-effective␈α∀at␈α∪moderate
␈↓ ↓H␈↓incomes␈αwas␈αworked␈α
out␈αearly␈αin␈α
this␈αcentury.␈α Think␈α
how␈αfew␈αpostwar␈α
inventions␈αwe␈αrely␈α
on␈αin
␈↓ ↓H␈↓our␈αdaily␈αlives␈αcompared␈αto␈α
our␈αreliance␈αon␈αthose␈αthat␈α
preceded␈α1920.␈α If␈αno␈αmore␈αinventions␈α
were
␈↓ ↓H␈↓made,␈α
our␈α
lives␈αwould␈α
remain␈α
exciting␈α
for␈αat␈α
least␈α
another␈α
hundred␈αyears␈α
by␈α
which␈α
time␈αthe␈α
world
␈↓ ↓H␈↓would␈αreach␈αa␈αuniformly␈αhigh␈αbut␈αdull␈α
standard␈αof␈αliving.␈α (By␈αthat␈αtime␈αthe␈αcommunist␈α
countries
␈↓ ↓H␈↓will␈αhave␈αsolved␈αthe␈αproblem␈αof␈αorderly␈αtransfer␈αof␈αpower␈αby␈αthe␈αtime-tested␈αmethod␈αof␈αbecoming
␈↓ ↓H␈↓monarchies,␈α
and␈α
the␈αhereditary␈α
general␈α
secretaries␈αwill␈α
begin␈α
granting␈αreal␈α
but␈α
limited␈α
powers␈αto
␈↓ ↓H␈↓their parliaments).

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Second,␈α⊃it␈α⊃isn't␈α⊃made␈α⊃clear␈α⊃which␈α∩social␈α⊃projections␈α⊃of␈α⊃the␈α⊃future␈α⊃are␈α⊃considered␈α∩to␈α⊃be
␈↓ ↓H␈↓founded␈α⊂on␈α⊂economic␈α⊂and␈α⊂sociological␈α⊂reasoning␈α⊂and␈α⊂which␈α⊂depend␈α⊂on␈α⊂specific␈α⊃projections␈α⊂of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓likely␈αtechnology.␈α Some␈αof␈αthe␈αconclusions␈αseem␈αto␈αme␈αto␈αbe␈αfounded␈αon␈αtechnological␈αprojections
␈↓ ↓H␈↓which, while plausible, are not necessarily the way technology will lead us:

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Thus␈αa␈αmajor␈αprojection␈αis␈αthat␈αthe␈αrelative␈αimportance␈αof␈αinformation␈αhandling␈αindustries
␈↓ ↓H␈↓relative␈αto␈αmanufacturing␈αwill␈αcontinue␈αto␈αincrease.␈α It␈αseems␈αto␈αme␈αthat␈αthis␈αcould␈αbe␈αaffected␈αby
␈↓ ↓H␈↓two␈α⊃kinds␈α⊂of␈α⊃development.␈α⊂ First,␈α⊃there␈α⊂could␈α⊃be␈α⊂a␈α⊃new␈α⊂expensive␈α⊃desirable␈α⊃invention.␈α⊂ Thus
␈↓ ↓H␈↓suppose␈αa␈αreliable␈αquiet␈αpersonal␈αflying␈α
machine␈αthat␈αcould␈αland␈αanywhere␈αwere␈αinvented,␈α
and␈αit
␈↓ ↓H␈↓cost␈α$75,000.␈α Suppose␈αfurther␈αthat␈αit␈αwas␈αautomatic␈αso␈αthat␈αchildren␈αand␈αother␈αnon-drivers␈αcould
␈↓ ↓H␈↓use␈αit,␈αand␈αit␈αwas␈αfast␈αenough␈αto␈αpermit␈α
commuting␈αfrom␈α250␈αmiles.␈α It␈αcould␈αvery␈αquickly␈αcome␈α
to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓dominate␈α∞the␈α∞economy,␈α∞because␈α∞peopple␈α∞would␈α∞strive␈α∞to␈α∞afford␈α∞it,␈α∞and␈α∞if␈α∞the␈α∞technological␈α∞facts
␈↓ ↓H␈↓were to dictate such a price, millions would be employed producing them.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Moreover,␈αthe␈αgrowth␈αof␈αthe␈α"knowledge"␈αindustry␈αcould␈αbe␈αreversed␈αby␈αnew␈αdiscoveries␈αin
␈↓ ↓H␈↓automating␈α⊗paper␈α⊗work.␈α⊗ Once␈α⊗firms␈α⊗and␈α⊗individuals␈α⊗keep␈α⊗all␈α⊗records␈α⊗in␈α⊗computers␈α⊗and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓communicate␈α→electronically,␈α→there␈α→will␈α→be␈α→an␈α→enormous␈α→payoff␈α→in␈α→making␈α→interfirm␈α→and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 91


␈↓ ↓H␈↓interpersonal␈α∪transactions␈α∪automatically.␈α∪ The␈α∪public␈α∩will␈α∪even␈α∪demand␈α∪that␈α∪the␈α∩government
␈↓ ↓H␈↓bureaucracy stop asking citizens questions to which it already has the answer.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_On␈αthe␈αother␈αhand,␈αit␈αcould␈αbe␈αargued␈αthat␈αthe␈αgrowth␈αof␈α"knowledge␈αindustries",␈αespecially
␈↓ ↓H␈↓bureaucracy,␈α
is␈α
not␈α
at␈α
all␈α
a␈α
technological␈α
phenomenon␈α
but␈α
a␈α
sociological␈α
one.␈α
 Perhaps␈αmiddle␈α
class
␈↓ ↓H␈↓young␈α∞people␈α∞prefer␈α∞information␈α∂processing␈α∞jobs,␈α∞squeeze␈α∞into␈α∂them,␈α∞and␈α∞work␈α∞to␈α∂expand␈α∞their
␈↓ ↓H␈↓functions.␈α
 The␈α
demand␈α
for␈α
"relevant"␈α
work␈α
of␈α
the␈αsixties␈α
can␈α
be␈α
regarded␈α
as␈α
a␈α
demand␈α
for␈αthe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓expansion␈αof␈αbureaucracy.␈α At␈αleast␈αthe␈αjob␈αof␈αa␈αmaker␈αand␈αenforcer␈αof␈αregulations␈αseems␈αto␈αcome
␈↓ ↓H␈↓closer␈α
to␈αcriteria␈α
for␈α"relevant␈α
work"␈αthan␈α
does␈αany␈α
other␈αjob␈α
not␈αrequiring␈α
specialized␈αtraining.␈α
 It
␈↓ ↓H␈↓can be argued that desire to be a lawyer had a major effect in expanding the area of lawsuits.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Anyway,␈α⊃I␈α∩would␈α⊃like␈α⊃to␈α∩know␈α⊃Professor␈α⊃Bell's␈α∩opinion␈α⊃on␈α⊃whether␈α∩the␈α⊃post-industrial
␈↓ ↓H␈↓society is a technological or a sociological necessity.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_In␈α
the␈αdescription␈α
of␈α
present␈αsociety,␈α
the␈αimpression␈α
of␈α
crisis␈αseems␈α
somewhat␈αoverdrawn.␈α
 In
␈↓ ↓H␈↓particular,␈αI␈α
don't␈αbelieve␈αin␈α
information␈αoverload.␈α People␈α
are␈αas␈αgood␈α
as␈αever␈αat␈α
ignoring␈αwhat
␈↓ ↓H␈↓doesn't affect their immediate decisions.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Finally,␈αI␈αthink␈αthe␈αword␈α␈↓↓compunication␈↓␈αis␈αugly.␈α Moreover,␈αit␈αpresumes␈αthat␈αcommunication
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈α⊃computation␈α⊃are␈α⊂inextricably␈α⊃mixed.␈α⊃ Because␈α⊃communication␈α⊂is␈α⊃a␈α⊃natural␈α⊃monopoly␈α⊂and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓communication is not, mixing them should be avoided.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 92


␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ∧+COMMENTS ON VYSSOTSKY'S PAPER

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Dr.␈α∞Vyssotsky's␈α∞scenario␈α∂of␈α∞the␈α∞development␈α∞of␈α∂business␈α∞computing␈α∞between␈α∞now␈α∂and␈α∞the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓year␈α
2000␈α
is␈α
a␈α∞very␈α
plausible␈α
extrapolation␈α
of␈α
present␈α∞trends.␈α
 However,␈α
there␈α
are␈α∞some␈α
possible
␈↓ ↓H␈↓discontinuities.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_1.␈α⊃I␈α⊂see␈α⊃home␈α⊂computer␈α⊃terminals␈α⊂coming␈α⊃into␈α⊃wide␈α⊂use␈α⊃in␈α⊂the␈α⊃eighties.␈α⊂ I␈α⊃also␈α⊃see␈α⊂the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓complete␈αequipment␈αof␈α
businesses␈αwith␈αterminals␈α-␈α
to␈αthe␈αpoint␈αwhere␈α
there␈αare␈αas␈αmany␈α
terminals
␈↓ ↓H␈↓as␈α∂desks.␈α∂ This␈α∂can␈α∂lead␈α∂to␈α∂systems␈α∂that␈α∂increase␈α∂bureaucratic␈α∂efficiency␈α∂by␈α∂larger␈α⊂factors␈α∂than
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Vyssotsky projects.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_2.␈α
Electronic␈α
communication␈α
has␈α
a␈α
second␈αdimension␈α
which␈α
will␈α
be␈α
especially␈α
important␈αin
␈↓ ↓H␈↓communicating␈α∞between␈α∂firms␈α∞and␈α∂in␈α∞communicating␈α∞with␈α∂humans.␈α∞ Consider␈α∂communicating␈α∞a
␈↓ ↓H␈↓price␈α
quotation␈αfor␈α
three␈α
ring␈αbinders␈α
at␈α
$1.77␈αapiece.␈α
 In␈α
the␈αa␈α
predetermined␈α
context,␈αwhether␈α
on
␈↓ ↓H␈↓paper␈α∞or␈α∂in␈α∞a␈α∂computer,␈α∞the␈α∞quotation␈α∂may␈α∞be␈α∂represented␈α∞as␈α∞a␈α∂character␈α∞string␈α∂like␈α∞"1ZB0461
␈↓ ↓H␈↓00177",␈αbut␈αthis␈αstring␈αhas␈αno␈αmeaning␈αbeyond␈αthis␈αcontext.␈α An␈αequally␈αformal␈αrepresentation␈αof
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈αsame␈αinformation␈αmight␈αbe␈α
((PRICE␈αQUOTE)␈α(VENDOR␈αSEARS)␈α(CATALOG␈α
NUMBER
␈↓ ↓H␈↓1ZB0461)␈α∪(DESCRIPTION␈α∪"THREE␈α∪RING␈α∩BINDER")␈α∪(COLOR␈α∪BLACK)␈α∪(PRICE␈α∩$1.77))
␈↓ ↓H␈↓which␈αmight␈α
be␈αa␈α
"sentence"␈αin␈αa␈α
␈↓↓standard␈αbusiness␈α
communication␈αlanguage␈↓.␈α
 I␈αsee␈αthe␈α
widespread
␈↓ ↓H␈↓use␈α∩of␈α∩such␈α∩languages␈α∩as␈α∩an␈α∩important␈α∪possibility␈α∩in␈α∩the␈α∩next␈α∩decades.␈α∩ The␈α∩writers␈α∪of␈α∩the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓programs␈α
that␈α
generate␈α
and␈αuse␈α
information␈α
in␈α
such␈α
complete␈αsentences␈α
need␈α
know␈α
far␈α
less␈αof␈α
each
␈↓ ↓H␈↓others businesses than is required for the kinds of interfirm computer-to-computer in use today.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_3.␈α
Finally,␈α
I␈α
have␈α
the␈α
impression␈α
that␈α
the␈α
increasing␈α
bureaucratization␈α
of␈αAmerican␈α
business,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓educational,␈α⊂and␈α⊂governmental␈α⊂institutions␈α⊂is␈α⊃an␈α⊂unstable␈α⊂phenomenon.␈α⊂ It␈α⊂may␈α⊃continue␈α⊂until
␈↓ ↓H␈↓2000,␈αbut␈αit␈αalso␈αmay␈αreverse␈αsharply␈αwhen␈αmany␈αbusinesses␈αdiscover␈αthat␈αthey␈αcan␈αdo␈αwith␈αmany
␈↓ ↓H␈↓fewer people in bureaucratic jobs, and these compete successfully with others.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 93


␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ∧/COMMENTS ON WINOGRAD'S PAPER

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_The␈αloan␈αrefusal␈αscenario,␈αthe␈αdiagnosis␈αof␈αwhat␈αis␈αwrong␈αwith␈αthe␈αway␈αcomputers␈αare␈αused,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈α↔statement␈α↔of␈α↔how␈α↔the␈α↔public␈α↔regards␈α↔computers,␈α↔and␈α↔the␈α↔proposed␈α↔remedies␈α_are␈α↔all
␈↓ ↓H␈↓unconvincing.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_As␈αlong␈α
as␈αcomputers␈α
exist,␈αclerks␈αwill␈α
sometimes␈αblame␈α
them,␈αwhen␈αthey␈α
can't␈αor␈α
won't␈αdo
␈↓ ↓H␈↓what␈αa␈αpetitioner␈α
requests.␈α The␈αloan␈α
refusal␈αscenario␈αseems␈αvaguely␈α
untypical,␈αand␈αit␈α
isn't␈αstated
␈↓ ↓H␈↓whether the clerk is putting his customer on.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Whether␈α⊃clerks␈α⊃have␈α⊃become␈α⊃less␈α∩responsive␈α⊃and,␈α⊃if␈α⊃so,␈α⊃whether␈α⊃computers␈α∩have␈α⊃made
␈↓ ↓H␈↓matters␈α∞worse,␈α
should␈α∞be␈α∞investigated␈α
not␈α∞presumed.␈α
 I␈α∞would␈α∞guess␈α
that␈α∞record␈α∞keeping␈α
systems
␈↓ ↓H␈↓that␈αinvolve␈αweekly␈αor␈αeven␈αmonthly␈αtape-to-tape␈αprocessing␈αhave␈αmade␈αpersonal␈α
request␈αharder
␈↓ ↓H␈↓to␈αfulfill,␈αbecause␈αthe␈αdata␈αis␈αoften␈αinaccessible␈αfor␈αinspection␈αor␈αchange,␈αand␈αI'll␈αbet␈αthis␈αhas␈αbeen
␈↓ ↓H␈↓much␈α∂more␈α∂important␈α∂than␈α⊂the␈α∂use␈α∂of␈α∂numbers␈α∂rather␈α⊂than␈α∂names.␈α∂ The␈α∂transition␈α⊂to␈α∂on-line
␈↓ ↓H␈↓systems␈α
should␈αbe␈α
encouraged,␈αand␈α
then␈αwe␈α
can␈αreally␈α
put␈αon␈α
the␈αpressure␈α
to␈αtreat␈α
people␈αbetter.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓My␈αfavorite␈α
courtesy␈αis␈α
that␈αno␈α
organization␈αshould␈αask␈α
anyone␈αa␈α
question␈αto␈α
which␈αit␈αalready␈α
has
␈↓ ↓H␈↓an␈α
answer,␈αthough␈α
it␈α
may␈αask␈α
for␈αconfirmation.␈α
 Direct␈α
terminal␈αaccess␈α
by␈αthe␈α
public␈α
to␈αbusiness
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈αgovernment␈α
data␈αbases␈α
and␈αpolicy␈αdescriptions␈α
and␈αrationalizations␈α
will␈αmake␈αmore␈α
difference
␈↓ ↓H␈↓than use by clerks of natural language dialogs.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_I␈αdon't␈αreally␈αknow␈αwhat␈αideas␈α
about␈αcomputers␈αdifferent␈αpeople␈αhave.␈α I␈αsuspect␈α
that␈αmost
␈↓ ↓H␈↓people␈α
don't␈αthink␈α
about␈α
computers␈αmuch,␈α
because␈α
so␈αfar␈α
they␈α
merely␈αdo␈α
more␈α
efficiently␈αwhat␈α
has
␈↓ ↓H␈↓been␈α
done␈α
all␈α
along.␈α
 It␈α
is␈α
just␈α
as␈α
presumptuous␈α
for␈α
us␈α
computer␈α
scientists␈α
to␈α
invent␈α
the␈α
public␈αas␈α
it
␈↓ ↓H␈↓is for uninformed people to act on imagined characteristics of computers.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_I␈α⊃think␈α⊃Winograd␈α⊃magnifies␈α⊃the␈α⊃importance␈α⊃of␈α⊃the␈α⊃field␈α⊃in␈α⊃which␈α⊃he␈α⊃(and␈α⊃I)␈α⊃work␈α⊃in
␈↓ ↓H␈↓making␈α⊂bureaucratic␈α⊃systems␈α⊂more␈α⊂responsive.␈α⊃ The␈α⊂key␈α⊂problem␈α⊃is␈α⊂to␈α⊂handle␈α⊃routine␈α⊂matters
␈↓ ↓H␈↓sufficiently␈α∩automatically␈α∪so␈α∩that␈α∩people␈α∪with␈α∩non-routine␈α∩problems␈α∪can␈α∩get␈α∩the␈α∪attention␈α∩of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓someone␈α∪with␈α∪authority␈α∪to␈α∩help.␈α∪ This␈α∪has␈α∪become␈α∪more␈α∩difficult,␈α∪because␈α∪the␈α∪loss␈α∪of␈α∩self-
␈↓ ↓H␈↓confidence␈αby␈αevery␈αkind␈α
of␈αauthority␈αmeans␈αthat␈αone␈α
can␈αalways␈αget␈αa␈αbit␈α
more␈αby␈αbeing␈αa␈αpest␈α
-
␈↓ ↓H␈↓with or without the help of lawyers.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_As␈α∞Winograd␈α∞suggests,␈α∂the␈α∞goal␈α∞must␈α∂be␈α∞a␈α∞system␈α∂in␈α∞which␈α∞a␈α∂person␈α∞can␈α∞interact␈α∂with␈α∞a
␈↓ ↓H␈↓computer␈α
system␈αthat␈α
understands␈αthe␈α
policies␈α
and␈αgoals␈α
of␈αthe␈α
organization␈αrather␈α
well␈α
and␈αcan
␈↓ ↓H␈↓automatically␈α∞arrive␈α∞at␈α∞solutions␈α
that␈α∞today␈α∞are␈α∞bureaucratically␈α
impossible.␈α∞ The␈α∞more␈α∞often␈α
an
␈↓ ↓H␈↓automatic␈α∞system␈α∞can␈α∞arrive␈α∂at␈α∞the␈α∞same␈α∞solution␈α∞the␈α∂board␈α∞of␈α∞directors␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α∂company␈α∞would
␈↓ ↓H␈↓reach, the higher the level at which special circumstances can be considered.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_The␈α
present␈α∞efforts␈α
at␈α
natural␈α∞language␈α
dialog␈α
seem␈α∞premature␈α
in␈α
that␈α∞the␈α
words␈α∞used␈α
go
␈↓ ↓H␈↓beyond␈αthe␈αunderstanding␈αof␈αthe␈αprograms.␈α For␈α
example␈αthe␈αprogram␈αthat␈αaccepts␈α␈↓↓"I␈αmust␈α
be␈αin
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓San␈α
Diego␈αbefore␈α
10␈αAM"␈↓␈α
almost␈αcertainly␈α
doesn't␈αunderstand␈α
␈↓↓"must"␈↓␈αwell␈α
enough␈αto␈α
know␈αwhen␈α
to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓ask␈αwhether␈α
chartering␈αa␈α
plane␈αis␈α
warranted.␈α Research␈α
in␈αunderstanding␈α
the␈αcommon␈αsense␈α
world
␈↓ ↓H␈↓is more needed than more dialog programs.  skip to column 1
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 94


␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ∧UCOMMENTS ON MOSES'S PAPER

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Let␈α∞me␈α∞confess␈α∞that␈α∞I␈α
am␈α∞a␈α∞rival␈α∞recounter␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α
wonders␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α∞computer␈α∞in␈α∞the␈α
home.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓However,␈α
the␈α
wonders␈α
I␈α
would␈α
cite␈α
are␈α
not␈α
the␈α
same␈α
as␈α
those␈α
cited␈α
by␈α
Moses.␈α
 Somehow␈α
I␈αdon't
␈↓ ↓H␈↓quite␈α⊂believe␈α⊂in␈α⊃his.␈α⊂ Maybe␈α⊂it␈α⊂seems␈α⊃too␈α⊂much␈α⊂like␈α⊂the␈α⊃1925␈α⊂accounts␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α⊃future␈α⊂cultural
␈↓ ↓H␈↓benefits of television.  Perhaps my predictions would be subject to similar criticism.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_I␈α
have␈α
three␈α∞general␈α
comments.␈α
 First,␈α∞Moses␈α
sometimes␈α
prefers␈α∞to␈α
solve␈α
problems␈α∞in␈α
ways
␈↓ ↓H␈↓that␈αrequire␈αa␈αthousand-fold␈αreduction␈αin␈αmanufacturing␈αcosts␈αwhen␈αthey␈αcan␈αbe␈αsolved␈αalmost␈αas
␈↓ ↓H␈↓well␈αat␈αtodays␈α
costs.␈α Second,␈αsome␈α
really␈αrevolutionary␈αpossibilities␈α
are␈αmissed.␈α Third,␈α
the␈αpaper
␈↓ ↓H␈↓suffers␈α
from␈α
the␈αcommon␈α
academic␈α
desire␈α
to␈αdetermine␈α
what␈α
is␈α
good␈αfor␈α
the␈α
public,␈α
give␈αthem␈α
that
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and withhold what is deemed less good - rather than letting everyone choose for himself.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_1.␈αAt␈αpresent␈αa␈α
terminal␈αadequate␈αfor␈αall␈α
the␈αnon-pictorial␈αapplications␈αMoses␈α
suggests␈αcan
␈↓ ↓H␈↓be␈αpurchased␈αfor␈α$950␈αin␈αkit␈αform.␈α Since␈αit␈αhas␈αno␈αlarge␈αscale␈αintegration,␈αequally␈αgood␈αterminals
␈↓ ↓H␈↓can␈α∂be␈α∂expected␈α∂to␈α∂cost␈α∂half␈α∂that␈α∂price␈α∞in␈α∂two␈α∂or␈α∂three␈α∂years,␈α∂because␈α∂the␈α∂terminal␈α∂industry␈α∞is
␈↓ ↓H␈↓extremely␈α
competitive.␈α
 A␈α
private␈α
telephone␈α
line␈α
to␈α
a␈α
computer␈α
or␈α
concentrator␈α
five␈α
miles␈αaway␈α
can
␈↓ ↓H␈↓be␈αrented␈αfor␈αabout␈α$25␈αper␈αmonth.␈α We␈αare␈αnot␈αin␈αa␈αposition␈αto␈αestimate␈αcomputer␈αcosts,␈αbecause
␈↓ ↓H␈↓we␈αdon't␈αknow␈αhow␈αmany␈αsubscribers␈αa␈αpresent␈αminicomputer␈αcan␈αhandle.␈α Possibly␈αmachines␈αare
␈↓ ↓H␈↓now␈α
cost-effective␈α
enough␈α
to␈α
provide␈αthe␈α
services␈α
Moses␈α
depicts␈α
at␈α$50␈α
per␈α
month,␈α
but␈α
it␈α
is␈αalso
␈↓ ↓H␈↓possible␈α
that␈α
another␈αthree␈α
to␈α
five␈α
years␈αhardware␈α
development␈α
is␈αrequired.␈α
 We␈α
contrast␈α
this␈αto
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈αproposal␈αto␈αput␈αwhat␈αis␈αnow␈αa␈α$500,000␈αcomputer␈αin␈αthe␈αhome.␈α Pie-in-the-sky␈αis␈αfine␈αbut␈α
not
␈↓ ↓H␈↓in competition with pie-in-the-hand.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_2.␈αSimilarly␈α
Moses␈αgreatly␈αunderestimates␈α
the␈αpossibilities␈αof␈α
the␈αordinary␈αtelephone␈α
network
␈↓ ↓H␈↓to␈αprovide␈αhome␈α
computer␈αservices.␈α He␈αestimates␈α
a␈αpage␈αat␈α10,000␈α
bits,␈α1000␈αto␈α
2000␈αbits/second
␈↓ ↓H␈↓communication␈α∞rate,␈α∞estimates␈α∞10␈α∞seconds␈α∞to␈α∂turn␈α∞a␈α∞page,␈α∞demands␈α∞page␈α∞turning␈α∞in␈α∂one␈α∞second,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈α
rules␈α
out␈α∞the␈α
telephone.␈α
 However,␈α
4800␈α∞bit/second␈α
modems␈α
already␈α
exist␈α∞for␈α
unconditioned
␈↓ ↓H␈↓lines␈α⊂and␈α⊂9600␈α⊂bit/second␈α⊂modems␈α⊂for␈α⊂conditioned␈α⊂lines.␈α⊂ Moreover,␈α⊂a␈α⊂micro-processor␈α⊂can␈α⊂be
␈↓ ↓H␈↓programmed␈α∩to␈α∩expand␈α∪text␈α∩that␈α∩has␈α∪been␈α∩encoded␈α∩to␈α∩half␈α∪its␈α∩volume.␈α∩ Finally,␈α∪have␈α∩1800
␈↓ ↓H␈↓bits/second␈α
into␈α
my␈α
home␈αterminal␈α
now␈α
without␈α
any␈α
information␈αcompression,␈α
and␈α
I␈α
find␈α
it␈αa␈α
trifle
␈↓ ↓H␈↓annoying␈α∞for␈α∂reading␈α∞some␈α∞times,␈α∂but␈α∞entirely␈α∞acceptable.␈α∂ Cable␈α∞TV␈α∞on␈α∂the␈α∞other␈α∞hand␈α∂is␈α∞not
␈↓ ↓H␈↓widespread,␈α∂and␈α∂general␈α⊂purpose␈α∂communication␈α∂is␈α⊂unlikely␈α∂to␈α∂become␈α⊂a␈α∂major␈α∂interest␈α⊂of␈α∂the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓cable␈α∂TV␈α∞operators␈α∂in␈α∞the␈α∂near␈α∞future,␈α∂while␈α∞libraries␈α∂can␈α∞be␈α∂accessible␈α∞through␈α∂the␈α∞telephone
␈↓ ↓H␈↓system as soon as the information is converted to computer form.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_3.␈αThere␈αare␈αreally␈αrevolutionary␈αpossibilities␈αfor␈αdemonopolizing␈αpublication.␈α At␈αpresent␈αa
␈↓ ↓H␈↓book,␈αmagazine␈αor␈α
newspaper␈αis␈αproduced␈α
by␈αan␈αorganization␈α
with␈αmany␈αhundreds␈α
of␈αemployees
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈α
capital␈α
in␈α
the␈α
hundreds␈αof␈α
thousands␈α
or␈α
millions␈α
of␈αdollars.␈α
 When␈α
there␈α
are␈α
large␈αpublic␈α
data
␈↓ ↓H␈↓files,␈α
it␈αwill␈α
be␈αpossible␈α
for␈αan␈α
individual␈αto␈α
publish␈αby␈α
himself.␈α If␈α
he␈αis␈α
well␈αknown,␈α
the␈αpublic
␈↓ ↓H␈↓will␈αhave␈αtheir␈αpersonal␈αlibrary␈αprograms␈αcheck␈αfor␈αhis␈αnew␈αwritings.␈α If␈αhe␈αis␈αnot␈αwell␈αknown,␈αhe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓will␈α≠have␈α≠to␈α≠get␈α≠his␈α≠writings␈α≠reviewed␈α≠by␈α≠influential␈α≠reviewers.␈α≠ A␈α≠correspondent␈α~in
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Constantinople␈α
could␈αget␈α
his␈αdispatches␈α
on␈α
Byzantine␈αpolitics␈α
before␈αhis␈α
faithful␈α
readers␈αwithout
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the help of any organization.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_If␈αyou␈αdisagree␈αwith␈αme␈αabout␈αthe␈α
above,␈αdear␈αreader,␈αjust␈αthink␈αthat␈αwith␈αthe␈α
new␈αsystem
␈↓ ↓H␈↓you␈αcould␈αexpress␈αyour␈αdoubts␈αin␈αa␈αfile␈αaccessible␈αto␈αany␈αsubsequent␈αreader.␈α As␈αhe␈αreads␈α
a␈αpage
␈↓ ↓H␈↓of␈α
this,␈α
he␈α
need␈αonly␈α
type␈α
"COMMENTS?"␈α
on␈αhis␈α
terminal,␈α
and␈α
there␈αthey␈α
would␈α
be.␈α
 He␈αcan␈α
also
␈↓ ↓H␈↓type "REREBUTTAL?"
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 95


␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_4.␈α∂Fortunately,␈α∞the␈α∂home␈α∞computer␈α∂users␈α∂will␈α∞have␈α∂implemented␈α∞electronic␈α∂mail␈α∂using␈α∞the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓telephone␈α⊃system␈α⊂long␈α⊃before␈α⊂the␈α⊃Office␈α⊂of␈α⊃Technology␈α⊂Assessment␈α⊃or␈α⊂the␈α⊃Postal␈α⊃Service␈α⊂can
␈↓ ↓H␈↓decide whether to forbid it in order to preserve the monopoly.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 96


␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓αCOMMENTS␈α∩ON␈α∩"␈α∩THE␈α∩CONSEQUENCES␈α∩OF␈α∩COMPUTERS␈α∩FOR␈α∩CENTRALIZATION
␈↓ ↓H␈↓αAND DECENTRALIZATION" by Herbert Simon␈↓

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_I␈α
find␈αmyself␈α
in␈αagreement␈α
with␈αalmost␈α
everything␈αin␈α
this␈αlucid␈α
paper.␈α There␈α
are␈αonly␈α
three
␈↓ ↓H␈↓points of difference.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_1.␈α∂It␈α∂is␈α∂not␈α∂obvious␈α⊂to␈α∂me␈α∂that␈α∂modern␈α∂society␈α⊂␈↓↓benefits␈↓␈α∂from␈α∂the␈α∂increased␈α∂power␈α⊂of␈α∂the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓central␈α∞government.␈α∞ If␈α∞the␈α∞fifty␈α∞states␈α∂had␈α∞more␈α∞independence,␈α∞there␈α∞would␈α∞be␈α∞costs,␈α∂and␈α∞what
␈↓ ↓H␈↓they␈α
are␈α
is␈α
well␈α
known.␈α
 On␈α
the␈α∞other␈α
hand,␈α
our␈α
present␈α
centralization␈α
means␈α
that␈α∞fewer␈α
energy
␈↓ ↓H␈↓policies␈α∞will␈α∂be␈α∞tried,␈α∂and␈α∞this␈α∂reduces␈α∞the␈α∞probability␈α∂that␈α∞some␈α∂state␈α∞will␈α∂find␈α∞a␈α∂near␈α∞optimal
␈↓ ↓H␈↓policy.  The recent nationalization of educational policy is really a tragedy.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_2.␈α∩A␈α∩corporation␈α∩or␈α⊃government␈α∩agency␈α∩may␈α∩centralize␈α⊃or␈α∩decentralize␈α∩according␈α∩to␈α⊃its
␈↓ ↓H␈↓leaders'␈α
ideas␈α
of␈α
how␈α
to␈α
achieve␈α
the␈α
organization's␈α
goals.␈α
 Its␈α
employees␈α
have␈α
agreed␈α
to␈α
do␈α
what
␈↓ ↓H␈↓they␈αare␈αtold␈αwithin␈αcertain␈αlimits.␈α However,␈αa␈αcitizen␈αhas␈αcertain␈αrights␈αto␈αdispose␈αof␈αhis␈αperson,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓his␈α
time␈α
and␈αhis␈α
property␈α
as␈αhe␈α
wishes,␈α
and␈α
this␈αoften␈α
dictates␈α
decentralization␈αwhen␈α
centralization
␈↓ ↓H␈↓would␈αbetter␈αachieve␈αeven␈αagreed␈αgoals.␈α It␈αis␈αnot␈αentirely␈αthe␈αprerogative␈αof␈αgovernment␈αor␈αsocial
␈↓ ↓H␈↓scientists␈α∞to␈α∞structure␈α∞people's␈α∞motivations␈α∞so␈α∞as␈α∞to␈α∞achieve␈α∞a␈α∞"national␈α∞goal".␈α∞ Subgroups␈α∞of␈α
the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓population␈α∞may␈α∞also␈α∞have␈α∞rights␈α∞of␈α∞self-determination␈α∞so␈α∞that␈α∞a␈α∞slogan␈α∞of␈α∞"states'␈α∞rights"␈α∞is␈α∞not
␈↓ ↓H␈↓necessarily meaningless.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_3.␈α
Electronic␈α∞voting␈α
from␈α∞the␈α
home␈α∞is␈α
too␈α
quickly␈α∞dismissed␈α
as␈α∞beside␈α
the␈α∞point.␈α
 Suppose
␈↓ ↓H␈↓that␈α∞all␈α∞public␈α
statements␈α∞are␈α∞immediately␈α∞available␈α
-␈α∞suitably␈α∞indexed␈α
so␈α∞that,␈α∞for␈α∞example,␈α
on
␈↓ ↓H␈↓reading␈αthe␈αPresident's␈α
speech,␈αa␈αcitizen␈α
can␈αimmediately␈αask␈αhis␈α
terminal,␈α␈↓↓"Who,␈αin␈α
the␈αopposite
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓party,␈αhas␈αcommented␈αon␈αthat?"␈↓.␈α Suppose␈αfurther␈αthat␈αevery␈αcitizen␈αhas␈αa␈αright␈αto␈αintroduce␈αbills
␈↓ ↓H␈↓in␈α
Congress,␈αbut␈α
bills␈α
need␈αa␈α
some␈α
millions␈αof␈α
sponsors␈α
to␈αreach␈α
a␈α
vote.␈α Suppose␈α
that␈α
votes␈αcan␈α
be
␈↓ ↓H␈↓delegated␈α∪and␈α∩redelegated,␈α∪and␈α∩anyone␈α∪with␈α∪500,000␈α∩votes␈α∪can␈α∩have␈α∪an␈α∩office␈α∪and␈α∪staff␈α∩in
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Washington␈αand␈αcall␈α
himself␈αa␈αCongressman.␈α Suppose␈α
finally␈αthat␈αa␈αcitizen␈α
can␈αcast␈αhis␈αown␈α
vote
␈↓ ↓H␈↓or␈αredelegate␈α
it␈αwhenever␈αhe␈α
feels␈αso␈αinclined.␈α
 Such␈αa␈αsystem␈α
might␈αnot␈αbe␈α
better␈αthan␈αthe␈α
present
␈↓ ↓H␈↓one,␈α
but␈α∞it␈α
would␈α
certainly␈α∞be␈α
different,␈α
and␈α∞it␈α
would␈α
encourage␈α∞political␈α
participation.␈α∞ I␈α
would
␈↓ ↓H␈↓like␈α
to␈α
see␈α
it␈αtried,␈α
and␈α
I␈α
would␈α
bet␈αthat␈α
initial␈α
instability␈α
would␈α
damp␈αout,␈α
and␈α
then␈α
it␈αwould␈α
work
␈↓ ↓H␈↓very␈αwell.␈α
 Even␈αin␈αsuch␈α
a␈αsystem,␈αeffective␈α
ability␈αto␈αdefine␈α
the␈αissues,␈αwould␈α
remain␈αin␈αthe␈α
hands
␈↓ ↓H␈↓of small numbers of people.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 97


␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ∧QCOMMENTS ON PERLIS'S PAPER

␈↓ ↓H␈↓A␈α∂good␈α∂paper.␈α∂ I␈α∂can't␈α∂at␈α∂the␈α∂moment␈α∂think␈α∂of␈α∂any␈α∂comments␈α∂short␈α∂of␈α∂rewriting␈α∂the␈α⊂paper␈α∂to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓conform to my own ideas.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 98


␈↓ ↓H␈↓COMMENTS ON EVANS'S PAPER

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Evans's␈α∞discussion␈α∂of␈α∞the␈α∞interaction␈α∂of␈α∞computers␈α∞and␈α∂communications␈α∞concentrates␈α∂on␈α∞a
␈↓ ↓H␈↓survey␈α
of␈α∞the␈α
communication␈α∞techniques␈α
available␈α
and␈α∞likely␈α
to␈α∞be␈α
available␈α∞for␈α
communication
␈↓ ↓H␈↓between␈α∀computers.␈α∪ However,␈α∀it␈α∪seems␈α∀to␈α∀me␈α∪that␈α∀the␈α∪factors␈α∀presently␈α∀limiting␈α∪computer-
␈↓ ↓H␈↓computer␈α∀communication␈α∀(more␈α∪properly␈α∀process-process␈α∀communication)␈α∪are␈α∀not␈α∀mainly␈α∪the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓hardware␈α⊃provided␈α⊃by␈α⊂the␈α⊃communication␈α⊃companies.␈α⊂ More␈α⊃important␈α⊃factors␈α⊂are␈α⊃(i)␈α⊃lack␈α⊂of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓protocols␈αfor␈α
message,␈αfile,␈α
and␈αterminal␈αsimulation␈α
communication␈αover␈α
the␈αdial-up␈α
network,␈α(ii)
␈↓ ↓H␈↓lack␈α
of␈α
a␈α
common␈α∞language␈α
for␈α
expressing␈α
business␈α
communications,␈α∞and␈α
(iv)␈α
lack␈α
of␈α∞a␈α
national
␈↓ ↓H␈↓file␈α∪naming␈α∪and␈α∪program␈α∪naming␈α∪system.␈α∩ Alas,␈α∪these␈α∪problems␈α∪are␈α∪not␈α∪yet␈α∪being␈α∩seriously
␈↓ ↓H␈↓addressed.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 99


␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ¬αComments on Shubik's paper

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Professor␈α
Shubik␈αis␈α
precisely␈αright␈α
in␈α
saying␈αthat␈α
the␈αgoal␈α
of␈αcomputer␈α
modelling␈α
of␈αsocial
␈↓ ↓H␈↓phenomena␈αshould␈αbe␈αto␈αincrease␈αboth␈αdemocracy␈αand␈αindividual␈αfreedom,␈αand␈αI␈αagree␈αwith␈αhim
␈↓ ↓H␈↓that␈α∞there␈α∞are␈α∞great␈α∞potentialities.␈α∞ I␈α∞wish␈α∞he␈α∞would␈α∞elaborate␈α∞his␈α∞ideas␈α∞on␈α∞how␈α∞to␈α∞␈↓↓"improve␈α∞the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓scope␈α∞of␈α∞individuality"␈↓.␈α∞ Unfortunately,␈α∞few␈α∞will␈α∂be␈α∞convinced␈α∞by␈α∞the␈α∞article␈α∞itself␈α∂that␈α∞computer
␈↓ ↓H␈↓modelling␈αwill␈αcontribute␈αmuch␈αto␈αthese␈αgoals␈αin␈αthe␈αimmediate␈αfuture,␈αbecause␈αthere␈αisn't␈αenough
␈↓ ↓H␈↓information␈α∞about␈α∞the␈α
actual␈α∞successes␈α∞and␈α
failures␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α
computer␈α∞simulations␈α∞that␈α∞have␈α
been
␈↓ ↓H␈↓attempted␈αand␈αthe␈αprospects␈αfor␈αthe␈αnear␈αfuture.␈α Modelling␈αduels␈αmathematically␈αand␈αsolving␈αthe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓travelling␈α∂salesman␈α∂problem␈α∂by␈α∂computer␈α∂just␈α∂can't␈α∂convince␈α∂a␈α∂reader␈α∂that␈α∂society␈α∂can␈α∂now␈α∂be
␈↓ ↓H␈↓usefully modelled.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_This␈α
unconvinced␈α
reader␈α
will␈α
be␈α
further␈α
distressed␈α
by␈α
the␈α
remarks␈α
in␈α
the␈α
introduction␈αto␈α
the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓effect␈αthat␈α
unless␈αadvances␈αare␈α
made␈αin␈αmodelling,␈α
society␈αwon't␈αsurvive.␈α
 Thus␈α␈↓↓"This␈αtechnology␈α
is
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓a␈αnecessary␈α...␈α
condition␈αfor␈αthe␈α
survival␈α...␈αof␈α
modern␈αhigh␈αtechnology␈α
mass␈αsocieties␈αwhich␈αwish␈α
to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓preserve␈α
democratic␈αand␈α
libertarian␈α
values"␈↓.␈α Is␈α
this␈αjust␈α
a␈α
routine␈αpuff␈α
for␈α
the␈αauthor's␈α
topic␈αor␈α
can
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈αauthor␈α
identify␈αsome␈αongoing␈α
process␈αthat␈α
will␈αdestroy␈αour␈α
society␈αunless␈α
computer␈αmodelling
␈↓ ↓H␈↓wins␈α⊃its␈α⊃race␈α⊂with␈α⊃chaos?␈α⊃ Weizenbaum␈α⊂(␈↓↓Computer␈α⊃Power␈α⊃and␈α⊂Human␈α⊃Reason␈↓)␈α⊃also␈α⊃says␈α⊂that
␈↓ ↓H␈↓computers␈α∞have␈α∞saved␈α∞or␈α∂will␈α∞save␈α∞society␈α∞from␈α∂collapse.␈α∞ While␈α∞computer␈α∞modelling␈α∂and␈α∞other
␈↓ ↓H␈↓uses␈αof␈αcomputers␈αwill␈αimprove␈αour␈αsociety,␈αno␈αcase␈αhas␈αbeen␈αmade␈αthat␈αwe␈αcan't␈αbumble␈αalong␈αas
␈↓ ↓H␈↓long␈α
as␈α
necessary␈α
without␈α
much␈α
help␈α
from␈α
computer␈α
modelling.␈α
 Except␈α
that␈α
we␈α
must␈α
adapt␈α
our
␈↓ ↓H␈↓technology to lower grade ores, I don't see any sense in which our society is "riding a tiger".

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_I␈αalso␈αdon't␈αunderstand,␈α␈↓↓"This␈αis␈αa␈αraw␈αdata␈αrich␈αbut␈αinformation␈αpoor␈αsociety."␈↓␈αCompared␈αto
␈↓ ↓H␈↓what?

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Why are intelligent machines closer than wise or skeptical machines?
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ *10


␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ∧LCOMMENTS ON ARROW'S PAPER

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_I have no comment on this paper.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ *11


␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ∧ECOMMENTS ON DENICOFF PAPER

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Marvin␈α
Denicoff␈α
does␈α
a␈α
real␈α
service␈α
in␈α
attempting␈α
a␈α
history␈α
of␈α
computing,␈α
and␈α
his␈αtopics␈α
are
␈↓ ↓H␈↓well␈αchosen.␈α However,␈αit␈αis␈αone␈αof␈αthe␈αfirst␈αattempts␈αand␈αnaturally␈αencounters␈αdisagreement␈αfrom
␈↓ ↓H␈↓other participants and observers.  Here are mine:

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_1.␈α⊃The␈α⊃fifties␈α⊃were␈α⊃more␈α⊃optimistic␈α⊃years␈α⊃than␈α⊃the␈α⊃seventies␈α⊃and␈α⊃not␈α⊃only␈α∩in␈α⊃computer
␈↓ ↓H␈↓science.␈α However,␈αthe␈αpicture␈αdrawn␈αby␈αDenicoff␈αdoesn't␈αdo␈αjustice␈αto␈αthe␈αvaried␈αopinions␈αextant
␈↓ ↓H␈↓at␈αthat␈αtime␈αabout␈αthe␈αprobabilities␈αof␈αsuccess␈αof␈αvarious␈αendeavors␈αin␈αgiven␈αtimes.␈α
 When␈αasked
␈↓ ↓H␈↓for␈αa␈αprediction␈αof␈αhow␈αsoon␈αa␈αresearch␈αor␈αdevelopment␈αgoal␈αwill␈αbe␈αrealized,␈αa␈αscientist␈αis␈αbound
␈↓ ↓H␈↓to␈α∃give␈α∀an␈α∃optimistic␈α∀answer␈α∃if␈α∀he␈α∃takes␈α∀into␈α∃account␈α∀only␈α∃difficulties␈α∀that␈α∃he␈α∀recognizes.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Therefore,␈αhe␈αshould␈αcautiously␈αanswer␈αthat␈αif␈αthe␈αdifficulties␈αhe␈αsees␈αare␈αall␈αthere␈αare,␈αit␈αwill␈α
take
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓↓n␈↓ years.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_2.␈αDenicoff's␈αhistory␈αof␈αtime-sharing␈αassigns␈αto␈αlittle␈αcredit␈αto␈αCorbato␈α(who␈αinitiated␈αCTSS)
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈α∂me␈α∞and␈α∂too␈α∂much␈α∞to␈α∂Strachey␈α∞(read␈α∂his␈α∂1959␈α∞paper),␈α∂Teager,␈α∞and␈α∂Fano.␈α∂ Institutionally,␈α∞it
␈↓ ↓H␈↓neglects␈α
the␈α
IBM␈α
and␈α
NSF␈α
support␈α
of␈α
early␈α
time-sharing␈α
at␈α
M.I.T.␈α
and␈α
N.I.H.␈α
support␈α
of␈α
time-
␈↓ ↓H␈↓sharing␈α∃at␈α∀BBN.␈α∃ Administratively,␈α∀Philip␈α∃Morse␈α∀and␈α∃J.C.R.␈α∀Licklider␈α∃also␈α∃deserve␈α∀credit.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Fredkin␈αdeserves␈αcredit␈αfor␈αrecognizing␈αthat␈αtime-sharing␈αwas␈αfeasible␈αon␈αa␈αcomputer␈αas␈α
small␈αas
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈α
PDP-1␈α
and␈α
devising␈α
most␈α
of␈α
the␈α
hardware␈α
modifications␈α
required␈α
to␈α
make␈α
it␈α∞feasible.␈α
 The
␈↓ ↓H␈↓importance␈α∪of␈α∪MULTICS␈α∪is␈α∪exaggerated;␈α∪it␈α∪never␈α∪produced␈α∪cost-effective␈α∀time-sharing␈α∪and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓neither␈α
did␈α∞the␈α
IBM␈α∞TSS␈α
effort.␈α∞ Denicoff␈α
inexplicably␈α∞totally␈α
ignores␈α∞the␈α
PDP-6␈α∞and␈α
PDP-10
␈↓ ↓H␈↓computers␈α∂which␈α∂initiated␈α∂cost-effective␈α∂time-sharing␈α⊂and␈α∂whose␈α∂descendants␈α∂are␈α∂still␈α⊂the␈α∂most
␈↓ ↓H␈↓commonly␈αused␈α
time-sharing␈αmachines.␈α Their␈α
success␈αcompared␈α
to␈αMULTICS␈αand␈α
TSS␈αis␈αdue␈α
to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓starting␈αwith␈αreal␈αproblems␈αrather␈αthan␈αthe␈αpseudo-problems␈αof␈αlevels␈αof␈αaccess␈αand␈αsegmentation.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Many hundreds of PDP-10s are in use compared to a few dozen users of MULTICS and TSS.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_3.␈αArtificial␈αintelligence.␈α The␈αDartmouth␈αconference␈αwas␈αin␈α1956.␈α The␈αhistory␈α
of␈αartificial
␈↓ ↓H␈↓intelligence␈α∞is␈α∞even␈α∂harder␈α∞to␈α∞write␈α∂than␈α∞that␈α∞of␈α∂time-sharing.␈α∞ Time-sharing␈α∞is␈α∂successful,␈α∞and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓careful␈α∀interviewing␈α∀and␈α∀reading␈α∀will␈α∀trace␈α∀the␈α∀successful␈α∀ideas␈α∀to␈α∀their␈α∀sources.␈α∪ Artificial
␈↓ ↓H␈↓intelligence␈α
has␈α∞not␈α
yet␈α∞achieved␈α
enough␈α∞of␈α
its␈α
goals␈α∞to␈α
make␈α∞it␈α
uncontroversial␈α∞which␈α
activities
␈↓ ↓H␈↓are␈αcontributions␈αand␈αwhich␈αare␈αblind␈αalleys.␈α Moreover,␈αthe␈αtheoretical␈αfoundation␈αof␈αthe␈αsubject
␈↓ ↓H␈↓is␈α∂still␈α∂so␈α∂undeveloped␈α∂that␈α∂it␈α∂can't␈α∂even␈α∂be␈α∂definitively␈α∂said␈α∂what␈α∂the␈α∂basic␈α∂ideas␈α∂are.␈α∂ E.g.␈α∞is
␈↓ ↓H␈↓natural language understanding fundamental or a side issue?

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_4.␈α
Software␈α∞development.␈α
 I␈α
find␈α∞this␈α
discussion␈α
-␈α∞mixing␈α
issues␈α
of␈α∞management,␈α
language
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and data structure design, and proofs of correctness - rather murky.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_5.␈α
Large␈α
file␈α
systems.␈α
 One␈α
suspects␈α
the␈α
author␈α
of␈α
overemphasizing␈α
activities␈α
sponsored␈αby
␈↓ ↓H␈↓ONR.␈α The␈αpacing␈αelement␈αin␈αlarge␈αon-line␈αdata␈αsystems␈αhas␈αbeen␈αthe␈αcost␈αof␈αdisk␈αfile.␈α Now␈αthat
␈↓ ↓H␈↓disk␈αfiles␈αare␈αcheap,␈αthere␈αcan␈αbe␈αmovement␈αaway␈αfrom␈αmonthly␈αbatch␈αprocessing␈αof␈αkeypunched
␈↓ ↓H␈↓data␈αto␈αimmediate␈αprocessing␈αof␈α
data␈αentered␈αat␈αterminals␈αas␈α
soon␈αas␈αit␈αis␈αreceived␈αwith␈α
immediate
␈↓ ↓H␈↓feedback␈αto␈αthe␈αperson␈αwho␈αenters␈αthe␈αdata.␈α This␈αchange␈αis␈αimportant␈αfor␈αsocial␈αreasons,␈αbecause
␈↓ ↓H␈↓much␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂rigidity␈α⊂and␈α∂mystery␈α∂of␈α∂computer␈α∂systems␈α⊂has␈α∂been␈α∂caused␈α∂by␈α∂the␈α⊂infeasibility␈α∂of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓interrogating␈α
and␈α
changing␈αdata␈α
relevant␈α
to␈αan␈α
individual␈α
in␈αthe␈α
middle␈α
of␈αa␈α
large␈α
tape␈αlibrary.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓The problem may be important enough to almost justify outlawing tape-to-tape file processing.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ *12


␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ∧(COMMENTS ON DERTOUZOS'S PAPER

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_I␈αagree␈α
with␈αDertouzos's␈α
fundamental␈αcontention␈α
that␈αinformation␈α
processing␈αtechnology␈α
will
␈↓ ↓H␈↓enable␈α⊃us␈α⊃␈↓↓"to␈α⊃reverse␈α⊃some␈α⊃of␈α⊂the␈α⊃impersonal␈α⊃and␈α⊃dehumanizing␈α⊃consequences␈α⊃of␈α⊃the␈α⊂industrial
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓revolution"␈↓.␈α -␈αat␈αleast␈αto␈αreverse␈αwhat␈αare␈αperceived␈αas␈αsuch␈αconsequences.␈α We␈αshall␈αindeed␈αhave
␈↓ ↓H␈↓individually␈α
designed␈αshoes␈α
and␈αclothes␈α
at␈αa␈α
price␈α
close␈αto␈α
that␈αof␈α
the␈αmass␈α
produced␈αproduct.␈α
 On
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the other hand I find the detailed picture rather implausible for reasons I can't always quite state.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_My␈α→basic␈α→problem␈α→is␈α→that␈α~Dertouzos␈α→sees␈α→the␈α→various␈α→marvels␈α~as␈α→straightforward
␈↓ ↓H␈↓improvements␈αof␈αpresent␈αtrends.␈α Therefore,␈αhe␈α
tends␈αto␈αproject␈αpresent␈αideas␈αto␈α
the␈αachievement
␈↓ ↓H␈↓of␈α
these␈α
goals.␈α∞ I␈α
think␈α
we␈α∞are␈α
at␈α
least␈α
one␈α∞scientific␈α
revolution␈α
away␈α∞from␈α
the␈α
level␈α∞of␈α
artificial
␈↓ ↓H␈↓intelligence␈α⊂required␈α⊂to␈α⊃achieve␈α⊂many␈α⊂of␈α⊃the␈α⊂objectives␈α⊂present␈α⊃in␈α⊂this␈α⊂paper.␈α⊃ Therefore,␈α⊂the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓future will be more intellectually surprising than the paper suggests.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Here are some specific disagreements, mostly minor:

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_1.␈αLike␈αmost␈αwriters,␈αDertouzos␈αjumps␈αto␈αconclusions␈αabout␈αthe␈αrelation␈αbetween␈αtechnology
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈αemployment.␈α Looking␈αat␈αthe␈αpast,␈αAmerican␈αindustrial␈αproductivity␈αhas␈αgrown␈αby␈αmore␈αthan
␈↓ ↓H␈↓an␈α
order␈α
of␈α
magnitude␈α
since␈α
1900.␈α
 Unemployment␈α
levels␈α
are␈α
similar,␈α
and␈α
their␈α
is␈α
no␈αcorrelation
␈↓ ↓H␈↓between␈α↔specific␈α↔advances␈α↔in␈α↔technology␈α_and␈α↔the␈α↔level␈α↔of␈α↔unemployment.␈α_ The␈α↔economic
␈↓ ↓H␈↓servomechanisms␈α∀governing␈α∀employment␈α∀have␈α∃a␈α∀much␈α∀shorter␈α∀time-scale␈α∃than␈α∀technological
␈↓ ↓H␈↓advance.␈α∂ They␈α∂can␈α∂handle␈α∂much␈α∂faster␈α∂rates␈α⊂of␈α∂advance␈α∂than␈α∂are␈α∂likely␈α∂in␈α∂this␈α⊂country.␈α∂ For
␈↓ ↓H␈↓example,␈α∞they␈α∞can␈α∞handle␈α∞the␈α∞ten␈α∞percent␈α∞per␈α∞year␈α∞advance␈α∞that␈α∞Japan␈α∞experienced␈α∂during␈α∞the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓1960s.␈α The␈αerror␈αis␈αlike␈αsomeone␈αtrying␈αto␈αpredict␈αthe␈αeffect␈αof␈αa␈αchange␈αin␈αthe␈αgain␈αof␈αa␈αstage␈αof
␈↓ ↓H␈↓a␈α⊃feedback␈α⊃amplifier␈α⊃on␈α⊃the␈α⊃output.␈α⊃ There␈α∩is␈α⊃an␈α⊃effect,␈α⊃but␈α⊃it␈α⊃is␈α⊃completely␈α⊃masked␈α∩by␈α⊃the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓feedback loop.  Unfortunately, we don't yet know how to control the economic feedback loop.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_2.␈α∩Count␈α∩me␈α∩with␈α∪those␈α∩who␈α∩believe␈α∩there␈α∪is␈α∩nothing␈α∩qualitatively␈α∩new␈α∪in␈α∩connecting
␈↓ ↓H␈↓computers␈α∂together.␈α∂ I␈α∂think␈α⊂one␈α∂can␈α∂prove␈α∂mathematically␈α⊂that␈α∂one␈α∂computer␈α∂can␈α⊂simulate␈α∂n-
␈↓ ↓H␈↓interacting computers at a speed of approximately 1/n times real time.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_3.␈α∩While␈α⊃"arithmetic␈α∩atrophy"␈α∩of␈α⊃some␈α∩kind␈α∩is␈α⊃a␈α∩plausible␈α∩conjecture,␈α⊃I'll␈α∩bet␈α∩␈↓∧1␈↓50␈α⊃that
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Dertouzos can't cite a study actually observing it (written before December 1977).

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_4.␈α
One␈α
false␈α
note␈α
in␈α
the␈α
shoe␈α
scenario␈α
is␈α
the␈α
card.␈α
 The␈α
home␈α
terminal␈α
and␈α
personal␈α
data
␈↓ ↓H␈↓files␈α∞will␈α
almost␈α∞certainly␈α
precede␈α∞the␈α
shoe-maker,␈α∞so␈α
one's␈α∞measurements␈α
will␈α∞be␈α
stored␈α∞in␈α
one's
␈↓ ↓H␈↓home files and so will the results of new measurements.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ *13


␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ∧4COMMENTS ON FERNBACH'S PAPER

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_With␈αa␈αfew␈αexceptions,␈αFernbach␈αcould␈αhave␈αmade␈αthe␈αsame␈αremarks␈αten␈αyears␈αago,␈αand␈αin
␈↓ ↓H␈↓several␈α
areas,␈α
he␈α
is␈α
already␈α
behind␈α
the␈α
times.␈α
 The␈α
most␈α
striking␈α
of␈α
these␈α
is␈α
his␈α
speculation␈α
that
␈↓ ↓H␈↓perhaps␈αeach␈αscientist␈αshould␈αhave␈αa␈αterminal␈αin␈αhis␈αoffice.␈α Our␈αlaboratory␈αreached␈αthat␈αpoint␈αin
␈↓ ↓H␈↓1971,␈αand␈αthe␈αmany␈αother␈αlaboratories␈αare␈αin␈αthat␈αposition␈αtoday.␈α In␈αten␈αyears␈αmost␈αstudents␈αwill
␈↓ ↓H␈↓have terminals in their dormitory rooms.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_When␈α
Fernbach␈αlists␈α
the␈α
sciences,␈αhe␈α
forgets␈α
computer␈αscience.␈α
 Perhaps␈α
he␈αregards␈α
it␈α
as␈αa
␈↓ ↓H␈↓minor branch of physics.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_He␈α∩is␈α∩right␈α⊃that␈α∩the␈α∩Library␈α∩of␈α⊃Congress␈α∩should␈α∩be␈α∩at␈α⊃the␈α∩fingertips␈α∩of␈α∩teachers␈α⊃and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓students.␈α⊃ The␈α⊂biggest␈α⊃barrier,␈α⊂however,␈α⊃is␈α⊃the␈α⊂capital␈α⊃cost␈α⊂of␈α⊃reading␈α⊂the␈α⊃information␈α⊃into␈α⊂a
␈↓ ↓H␈↓computer file.  The file storage and the communication are already cheap enough - though barely.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ *14


␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ∧≤COMMENTS ON NEGROPONTE'S PAPER

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_The␈α
vision␈α
of␈αfuture␈α
of␈α
the␈αarts␈α
presented␈α
in␈αthis␈α
paper␈α
seems␈αonly␈α
too␈α
plausible.␈α I␈α
certainly
␈↓ ↓H␈↓ascribes to the arts a smaller role in forming the human spirit than they have had in the past.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_The␈α∞computer␈α
can␈α∞indeed␈α
bring␈α∞new␈α
tools␈α∞to␈α
the␈α∞artist.␈α
 Unfortunately,␈α∞the␈α
arts␈α∞today␈α
are
␈↓ ↓H␈↓not␈αin␈αa␈αgood␈αmental␈αposition␈α
to␈αuse␈αnew␈αtools␈αor␈αeven␈α
their␈αold␈αtools.␈α Somehow␈αthe␈αview␈αthat␈α
an
␈↓ ↓H␈↓artist is primarily a maker of metaphors contributes to this situation.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ *15


␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ∧RCOMMENTS ON GILPIN'S PAPER

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Professor␈α∂Gilpin␈α∂looks␈α⊂for␈α∂evidence␈α∂of␈α⊂the␈α∂importance␈α∂of␈α⊂the␈α∂computer␈α∂in␈α⊂world␈α∂affairs.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Apart␈αfrom␈αthe␈αfact␈αthat␈αcomputers␈αare␈αone␈αmore␈αcost-reducing␈αtechnology␈αhe␈αdoesn't␈αfind␈αmuch,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈αI␈αmust␈αconfess␈αskepticism␈αabout␈αwhat␈αhe␈αdoes␈αfind.␈α I␈αbelieve␈αthat␈αthe␈αinternational␈αfinancial
␈↓ ↓H␈↓clearing␈α∂system␈α∂would␈α∂work␈α∂without␈α∂computers;␈α∂it␈α∂has␈α∂many␈α∂fewer␈α∂transactions␈α∂to␈α⊂handle␈α∂than
␈↓ ↓H␈↓domestic␈αclearing␈αhouses.␈α I␈αalso␈αbelieve␈αthe␈αArab␈αoil␈αembargo␈αwould␈αhave␈αfunctioned␈αjust␈αas␈αwell
␈↓ ↓H␈↓without␈α⊃computers␈α⊃to␈α⊂keep␈α⊃track␈α⊃of␈α⊂who␈α⊃was␈α⊃selling␈α⊂what␈α⊃oil␈α⊃to␈α⊂whom.␈α⊃ He␈α⊃then␈α⊃tells␈α⊂about
␈↓ ↓H␈↓multinational corporations, and I have just one doubt.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_It␈α∪seems␈α∪to␈α∪me␈α∪that␈α∪corporations␈α∪can␈α∪function␈α∪only␈α∪when␈α∪contracts␈α∪are␈α∪enforced,␈α∩and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓multinational␈αcorporations␈αcan␈αfunction␈α
only␈αwhen␈αinternational␈αcontracts␈α
are␈αenforced␈α-␈αeither␈α
by
␈↓ ↓H␈↓nations␈α∂internally,␈α∂by␈α∂powerful␈α∞nations␈α∂or␈α∂by␈α∂an␈α∞international␈α∂mechanism.␈α∂ When␈α∂a␈α∞mini-state,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓whose␈α∩GNP␈α∩is␈α∩a␈α∩thousandth␈α∩of␈α∩General␈α∩Motors␈α∩annual␈α∩sales,␈α∩shoots␈α∩the␈α∩Chevy␈α∩dealer␈α⊃and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓confiscates␈αall␈αthe␈αcars,␈αthere␈αis␈αnothing␈αGM␈αcan␈αdo␈αexcept␈αstay␈αaway␈αin␈αthe␈αfuture.␈α On␈αa␈αlarger
␈↓ ↓H␈↓scale,␈αthe␈αOPEC␈αsucceeded␈αin␈αquadrupling␈αprices,␈αbecause␈αthe␈αWest␈αlost␈αits␈αmoral␈αconviction␈αthat
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈α∪enterprise␈α∪and␈α∪inventiveness␈α∩that␈α∪found␈α∪the␈α∪oil,␈α∩found␈α∪the␈α∪markets,␈α∪and␈α∪developed␈α∩the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓industry␈α
entitled␈α
it␈α
to␈α
enforce␈αthe␈α
agreements␈α
on␈α
which␈α
the␈αindustry␈α
was␈α
based.␈α
 To␈α
the␈αextent␈α
that
␈↓ ↓H␈↓contracts␈α∞can␈α∞no␈α∂longer␈α∞be␈α∞made,␈α∞the␈α∂world␈α∞must␈α∞revert␈α∞to␈α∂more␈α∞primitive␈α∞economic␈α∂forms,␈α∞e.g.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓barter.␈α∂ The␈α∂U.S.␈α∂ may␈α∂have␈α∂to␈α∂obtain␈α∂its␈α∂energy␈α∂domestically␈α∂even␈α∂when␈α∂investing␈α∂to␈α∞develop
␈↓ ↓H␈↓foreign resources would be mutually beneficial.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_He␈α
then␈α
goes␈αon␈α
to␈α
consider␈α
the␈αmilitary␈α
consequences␈α
of␈αcomputers␈α
and␈α
doesn't␈α
find␈αvery
␈↓ ↓H␈↓much.␈α⊃ I␈α⊃agree␈α⊃that␈α∩up␈α⊃to␈α⊃now,␈α⊃computers␈α⊃have␈α∩been␈α⊃just␈α⊃one␈α⊃more␈α⊃technology.␈α∩ High␈α⊃level
␈↓ ↓H␈↓artificial␈αintelligence␈α
will␈αtransform␈α
all␈αpower␈α
relationships,␈αbut␈α
we␈αcan't␈α
now␈αtell␈α
whether␈αit␈αis␈α
five
␈↓ ↓H␈↓years␈αaway␈αor␈α
five␈αhundred.␈α To␈α
make␈αan␈αanalogy␈α
with␈αnuclear␈αphysics,␈α
we␈αdon't␈αknow␈αwhether␈α
it
␈↓ ↓H␈↓is now 1905 or 1935.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ *16


␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ∧SCOMMENTS ON NOYCE'S PAPER

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Dr.␈α∀Noyce's␈α∪projection␈α∀of␈α∪the␈α∀development␈α∪of␈α∀digital␈α∪electronics␈α∀is␈α∀entirely␈α∪believable.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Clearly␈αthe␈αharware␈α
will␈αsupport␈αall␈α
the␈αnew␈αapplications␈α
of␈αcomputing␈αenvisioned␈α
in␈αthis␈αbook.␈α
 I
␈↓ ↓H␈↓would like, however, to ask for something more from the hardware side.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_At␈α∪present,␈α∩and␈α∪in␈α∩Noyce's␈α∪projection,␈α∩large␈α∪scale␈α∩integrated␈α∪circuits␈α∩are␈α∪major␈α∩design
␈↓ ↓H␈↓projects␈α
and␈αrequire␈α
large␈αscale␈α
manufacture␈αto␈α
achieve␈αreasonable␈α
economy.␈α ␈↓↓What␈α
is␈αthe␈α
prospect
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓of␈α⊃developing␈α∩a␈α⊃technology␈α∩that␈α⊃can␈α∩make␈α⊃small␈α∩numbers␈α⊃of␈α∩complicated␈α⊃large␈α∩scale␈α⊃integrated
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓circuits␈α∂economically␈↓?␈α∂ Preferably,␈α∂the␈α∂equipment␈α∞should␈α∂be␈α∂usable␈α∂by␈α∂small␈α∂organizations.␈α∞ The
␈↓ ↓H␈↓The␈α⊃technology␈α⊂being␈α⊃replaced␈α⊂by␈α⊃large␈α⊂scale␈α⊃integration␈α⊂which␈α⊃involves␈α⊃mounting␈α⊂integrated
␈↓ ↓H␈↓circuits␈α
on␈α
printed␈αcircuit␈α
boards␈α
is␈α
accessible␈αto␈α
small␈α
organizations␈αand␈α
even␈α
to␈α
individuals.␈α It
␈↓ ↓H␈↓would␈α∩be␈α⊃unfortunate␈α∩to␈α⊃lose␈α∩this␈α⊃capability␈α∩permanently.␈α⊃ Micro-processors␈α∩help␈α⊃but␈α∩do␈α⊃not
␈↓ ↓H␈↓completely solve the problem.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_We␈α
understand␈αthe␈α
fundamental␈α
limitations␈αin␈α
the␈αperformance␈α
of␈α
semi-conductor␈αcircuits.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓↓Are␈α⊃there␈α⊂corresponding␈α⊃fundamental␈α⊃limits␈α⊂to␈α⊃small-scale␈α⊂manufacture␈↓?␈α⊃ If␈α⊃the␈α⊂manufacturing
␈↓ ↓H␈↓equipment can be developed, the problem of economical design will also be solved.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ *17


␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ∧←COMMENTS ON NOLL'S PAPER

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_I␈α∞agree␈α
with␈α∞Noll's␈α
argument␈α∞that␈α
government␈α∞regulation␈α
of␈α∞computing␈α
will␈α∞tend␈α∞to␈α
create
␈↓ ↓H␈↓cartels and prematurely rigidify the structure of the information industry.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Namely,␈α⊃it␈α⊃cannot␈α⊃now␈α⊃be␈α⊃known␈α⊃what␈α⊃combinations␈α⊃of␈α⊃home␈α⊃computers,␈α⊃time-sharing,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓specialized␈αcommunication,␈αtelephonic␈αcommunication,␈α
private␈αnetworks,␈αpublic␈αdata␈αbases,␈α
private
␈↓ ↓H␈↓data␈α
bases␈α
in␈αpublic␈α
computers,␈α
and␈α
private␈αdata␈α
bases␈α
in␈α
private␈αcomputers␈α
will␈α
work␈α
out␈αbest␈α
for
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈α∩users␈α∩of␈α∩intormation␈α∪services.␈α∩ This␈α∩is␈α∩because␈α∪it␈α∩isn't␈α∩known␈α∩what␈α∪services␈α∩individuals,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓businesses␈αand␈αother␈αinstitutions␈αwill␈αwant␈αand␈α
what␈αthey␈αwill␈αbe␈αwilling␈αto␈αpay.␈α Any␈α
attempt␈αat
␈↓ ↓H␈↓regulation␈αin␈αthe␈αnear␈αfuture␈αis␈α
likely␈αto␈αsplit␈αoff␈αthe␈αservice␈α
to␈αbe␈αregulated␈αand␈αrequire␈αit␈α
to␈αbe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓separately priced.  Let me give two examples:

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_1.␈α
The␈α
␈↓↓New␈α
York␈α
Times␈↓␈αproposed␈α
that␈α
electronic␈α
mail␈α
be␈αa␈α
function␈α
of␈α
the␈α
Postal␈αService.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓One␈α
may␈α
imagine␈αthat␈α
the␈α
Postal␈αService␈α
would␈α
be␈αglad␈α
to␈α
have␈αit␈α
as␈α
an␈αextension␈α
of␈α
its␈αfirst␈α
class
␈↓ ↓H␈↓mail␈α∞monopoly␈α
and␈α∞not␈α∞otherwise.␈α
 However,␈α∞a␈α
hobbyist's␈α∞home␈α∞computer␈α
is␈α∞capable␈α∞of␈α
sending
␈↓ ↓H␈↓electronic␈α∞mail␈α∞to␈α∞any␈α∂other␈α∞home␈α∞computer␈α∞over␈α∂the␈α∞telephone␈α∞network␈α∞once␈α∂suitable␈α∞protocols
␈↓ ↓H␈↓have␈αbeen␈αadopted.␈α Moreover,␈αthe␈αbusiness␈αuse␈αof␈αelectronic␈αmail␈αwill␈αbe␈αinextricably␈αintertwined
␈↓ ↓H␈↓with␈α⊂other␈α⊃inter-business␈α⊂communications.␈α⊃ For␈α⊂example,␈α⊂we␈α⊃envisage␈α⊂Company␈α⊃A's␈α⊂inventory
␈↓ ↓H␈↓control␈α⊂computer␈α⊂initiating␈α⊂a␈α⊂dialog␈α⊂with␈α⊃Company␈α⊂B's␈α⊂computer␈α⊂leading␈α⊂to␈α⊂an␈α⊂order␈α⊃for␈α⊂ten
␈↓ ↓H␈↓thousand␈αpencils␈αif␈αthe␈αprice␈αis␈αmutually␈αagreeable.␈α Such␈αa␈αdialog␈αmay␈αinvolve␈αfive␈αinterchanges
␈↓ ↓H␈↓of␈α∞messages␈α∞per␈α∞second␈α∞for␈α∞a␈α∞few␈α∞seconds.␈α∞ I␈α∞would␈α∞bet␈α∞that␈α∞the␈α∞service␈α∞initially␈α∞offered␈α∞by␈α
the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Postal␈α⊂Service␈α⊂wouldn't␈α∂to␈α⊂this␈α⊂economically,␈α⊂because␈α∂they␈α⊂wouldn't␈α⊂think␈α⊂of␈α∂it␈α⊂at␈α⊂first,␈α⊂and␈α∂it
␈↓ ↓H␈↓wouldn't␈α
be␈αimportant␈α
at␈αfirst.␈α
 On␈αthe␈α
other␈αhand,␈α
an␈αattempt␈α
to␈αwrite␈α
a␈αlaw␈α
extending␈αthe␈α
Postal
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Service's␈α∞mail␈α∞monopoly␈α
to␈α∞electronic␈α∞mail␈α∞would␈α
undoubtedly␈α∞cover␈α∞such␈α∞communication␈α
unless
␈↓ ↓H␈↓someone thought to exclude it.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_2.␈αThe␈αpresent␈αlaws␈αconcerning␈αcredit␈αdata␈αbases␈αwill␈αgive␈αtroubles␈αin␈αinterpretation␈αas␈αsoon
␈↓ ↓H␈↓as␈αpeople␈αstart␈αusing␈αcomputer␈αfiles␈αto␈αstore␈α
mail␈α-␈αas␈αmany␈αusers␈αof␈αARPAnet␈αalready␈αdo.␈α
 When
␈↓ ↓H␈↓is␈α∪a␈α∪remark␈α∪in␈α∪a␈α∪letter␈α∪that␈α∪someone␈α∪didn't␈α∪pay␈α∪his␈α∪bill␈α∪to␈α∪be␈α∪regarded␈α∪as␈α∀adverse␈α∪credit
␈↓ ↓H␈↓information␈α∞that␈α∞must␈α∞be␈α∞found␈α∞and␈α∞produced␈α∞when␈α∞the␈α∞individual␈α∞asks␈α∞for␈α∞his␈α∞credit␈α∞records.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Most␈α
likely,␈α
the␈α
people␈αto␈α
whom␈α
the␈α
request␈αis␈α
directed␈α
won't␈α
even␈αknow␈α
of␈α
the␈α
remark␈αin␈α
someone
␈↓ ↓H␈↓else's correspondence file.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ *18


␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ∧␈Comments on Minsky's paper

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_This␈α∂paper␈α∞expresses␈α∂opinions␈α∞about␈α∂many␈α∞subjects␈α∂related␈α∞to␈α∂artificial␈α∂intelligence.␈α∞ The
␈↓ ↓H␈↓opinions␈αare␈αbased␈αon␈αMinsky's␈αgreat␈αexperience␈αas␈αleader␈αof␈αone␈αof␈αthe␈αmost␈αsuccessful␈αartificial
␈↓ ↓H␈↓intelligence␈αlaboratories␈αand␈αmerit␈αrespect␈αfor␈αthat␈αreason.␈α Nevertheless,␈αit␈αseems␈αto␈αme␈αthat␈αmany
␈↓ ↓H␈↓are␈αnot␈αsufficiently␈αsupported␈αby␈αarguments␈αpresented␈αin␈αthe␈αpaper␈αitself,␈αand␈αsome␈αof␈αthem␈αseem
␈↓ ↓H␈↓to␈αme␈αinsufficiently␈αclearly␈αformulated.␈α
 In␈αthis␈αcommentary␈αI␈αwill␈α
list␈αsome␈αI␈αdisagree␈αwith,␈αsome␈α
I
␈↓ ↓H␈↓agree␈α⊃with␈α⊃(especially␈α⊃when␈α⊃I␈α⊃have␈α⊃something␈α⊂to␈α⊃add),␈α⊃and␈α⊃some␈α⊃whose␈α⊃formulations␈α⊃I␈α⊂don't
␈↓ ↓H␈↓understand,␈α⊃and␈α∩I␈α⊃will␈α∩try␈α⊃to␈α⊃give␈α∩reasons␈α⊃for␈α∩my␈α⊃opinions.␈α⊃ It␈α∩is␈α⊃a␈α∩measure␈α⊃of␈α∩the␈α⊃present
␈↓ ↓H␈↓weakness␈α
of␈α
the␈α
theory␈α
of␈α
intelligence␈α
that␈α
so␈αmany␈α
important␈α
topics␈α
have␈α
to␈α
be␈α
treated␈α
in␈αthis␈α
way
␈↓ ↓H␈↓as matters of opinion.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_The␈α∂two␈α∂main␈α∂sections␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂paper␈α∂are␈α∂a␈α∞history␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂progress␈α∂of␈α∂ideas␈α∂in␈α∂AI␈α∂and␈α∞a
␈↓ ↓H␈↓discussion of the representation of knowledge.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_The␈α
events␈α∞in␈α
the␈α
history␈α∞seem␈α
correctly␈α
reported,␈α∞but␈α
I␈α
am␈α∞somewhat␈α
doubtful␈α∞about␈α
the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓picture␈α⊂of␈α⊂steady␈α⊃progress␈α⊂presented␈α⊂in␈α⊃the␈α⊂historical␈α⊂section.␈α⊂ All␈α⊃the␈α⊂problems␈α⊂solved␈α⊃are␈α⊂in
␈↓ ↓H␈↓miniature␈α∩versions␈α∩and␈α∪haven't␈α∩yet␈α∩led␈α∪to␈α∩a␈α∩convincing␈α∪theory␈α∩of␈α∩the␈α∪phenomena␈α∩involved.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Therefore,␈αI␈αthink␈αthe␈αsame␈αproblems␈αwill␈αhave␈αto␈αbe␈αsolved␈αagain␈αand␈αagain␈αuntil␈αsuch␈αtheories
␈↓ ↓H␈↓are developed.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Unlike␈α∞the␈α∞hostile␈α∞critics␈α∞of␈α∞AI,␈α∞e.g.␈α∞Dreyfus,␈α∞Lighthill␈α∞and␈α∞Weizenbaum,␈α∞I␈α∞regard␈α∞this␈α∞as
␈↓ ↓H␈↓normal for so difficult a scientific problem and no reason to be discouraged.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓Creativity

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Can␈α
a␈α
machine␈α
do␈α
more␈α
than␈α
its␈α
designer?␈α
 No!␈α
 A␈α
machine␈α
or␈α
program␈α
can␈α
do␈α
nothing␈α
in␈α
a
␈↓ ↓H␈↓second␈α⊂its␈α⊃designer␈α⊂couldn't␈α⊂do␈α⊃in␈α⊂a␈α⊃year␈α⊂if␈α⊂he␈α⊃weren't␈α⊂so␈α⊃lazy␈α⊂-␈α⊂except␈α⊃in␈α⊂a␈α⊃few␈α⊂specialized
␈↓ ↓H␈↓arithmetic␈α
areas␈αwhere␈α
it␈α
might␈αtake␈α
the␈α
programmer␈αa␈α
hundred␈α
years␈αto␈α
do␈α
a␈αsecond's␈α
calculation.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓I␈αpersonally␈α
feel␈αthe␈αshortage␈α
of␈αtime␈αand␈α
mental␈αenergy␈αvery␈α
acutely␈αand␈αthink␈α
that␈αif␈αthe␈α
present
␈↓ ↓H␈↓state␈α∞of␈α∞AI␈α∞permitted␈α∞me␈α∞to␈α∞really␈α∞multiply␈α
my␈α∞mental␈α∞efforts␈α∞by␈α∞even␈α∞a␈α∞hundred,␈α∞let␈α∞alone␈α
ten
␈↓ ↓H␈↓million, I would accomplish great things.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Nevertheless,␈α∪I␈α∪think␈α∪that␈α∪there␈α∪really␈α∪is␈α∪a␈α∪worthwhile␈α∪concept␈α∪of␈α∪creativity␈α∪and␈α∪that
␈↓ ↓H␈↓creativity␈α⊃is␈α⊃not␈α⊂just␈α⊃those␈α⊃things␈α⊃we␈α⊂haven't␈α⊃yet␈α⊃programmed.␈α⊃ In␈α⊂my␈α⊃view,␈α⊃creativity␈α⊃is␈α⊂the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓introduction␈αof␈αa␈αnew␈αelement␈αinto␈αa␈αmental␈αsituation␈α-␈αwhere␈αnew␈αmeans␈αthat␈αthe␈αelement␈αis␈αnot
␈↓ ↓H␈↓constructed in certain standard ways from the what has already been considered.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_My␈αfavorite␈αexample␈α
is␈αproving␈αit␈αimpossible␈α
to␈αtile␈αwith␈α
dominoes␈αa␈αcheckerboard␈αwith␈α
the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓two␈αwhite␈αcorner␈αsquares␈αremoved.␈α The␈αidea␈αis␈αto␈αcount␈αthe␈αnumbers␈αof␈αblack␈αand␈αwhite␈αsquares
␈↓ ↓H␈↓that␈α∞must␈α∞be␈α∞covered␈α∞.␈α∞I␈α∞consider␈α∞this␈α∞idea␈α∞new␈α∞and␈α∞creative␈α∞relative␈α∞to␈α∞the␈α∞concepts␈α∞that␈α∞arise
␈↓ ↓H␈↓directly␈α∃from␈α∃the␈α∃formulation␈α⊗of␈α∃the␈α∃problem,␈α∃even␈α∃though␈α⊗the␈α∃idea␈α∃quickly␈α∃occurs␈α⊗to␈α∃a
␈↓ ↓H␈↓mathematician␈αreasonably␈α
experienced␈αwith␈αcombinatorial␈α
problems.␈α Thus␈α
creativity␈αis␈αrelative␈α
to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓a␈α⊃stock␈α⊃of␈α⊃ideas,␈α⊃and␈α∩there␈α⊃is␈α⊃such␈α⊃a␈α⊃thing␈α⊃as␈α∩"easy␈α⊃creativity".␈α⊃ Progress␈α⊃in␈α⊃AI␈α⊃and␈α∩in␈α⊃the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓psychology␈α
of␈α
intelligence␈α
requires␈α
the␈α
scientific␈αstudy␈α
of␈α
such␈α
easy␈α
creativity.␈α
 The␈α
beginning␈αof
␈↓ ↓H␈↓such␈α
a␈α
study␈α
lies␈α
in␈α
formulating␈α
a␈αmathematical␈α
logical␈α
notion␈α
of␈α
what␈α
concepts␈α
are␈αimmediately
␈↓ ↓H␈↓available.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓Mathematical logic
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ *19


␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Minsky␈α∪underestimates␈α∪the␈α∪potential␈α∪contribution␈α∪of␈α∪mathematical␈α∪logic.␈α∀ The␈α∪essential
␈↓ ↓H␈↓virtue␈α⊂of␈α⊂a␈α∂declarative␈α⊂language␈α⊂is␈α⊂that␈α∂sentences␈α⊂can␈α⊂be␈α∂made␈α⊂to␈α⊂have␈α⊂meaning␈α∂substantially
␈↓ ↓H␈↓independent␈α∂of␈α⊂context.␈α∂ Humans␈α⊂need␈α∂them␈α⊂for␈α∂transferring␈α⊂information␈α∂between␈α⊂people␈α∂who
␈↓ ↓H␈↓know␈α⊂little␈α⊃about␈α⊂the␈α⊂workings␈α⊃of␈α⊂each␈α⊃others␈α⊂brains.␈α⊂ However,␈α⊃␈↓↓context-free␈↓␈α⊂meaning␈α⊃is␈α⊂also
␈↓ ↓H␈↓important␈α∂for␈α∂communicating␈α∞between␈α∂processes␈α∂in␈α∞a␈α∂computer␈α∂and␈α∞for␈α∂storing␈α∂information␈α∞for
␈↓ ↓H␈↓future␈α⊃use␈α⊂without␈α⊃having␈α⊂to␈α⊃recreate␈α⊂the␈α⊃intellectual␈α⊂situation␈α⊃in␈α⊂which␈α⊃the␈α⊃information␈α⊂was
␈↓ ↓H␈↓developed.␈α↔ Of␈α⊗course,␈α↔this␈α↔independence␈α⊗is␈α↔imperfect,␈α↔and␈α⊗most␈α↔writers␈α↔have␈α⊗mistakenly
␈↓ ↓H␈↓concentrated on the imperfections of context-free meaning - missing its importance.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_In␈α⊂fact,␈α⊂I␈α⊂doubt␈α⊂that␈α⊂the␈α⊂present␈α⊂generation␈α⊂of␈α⊂"expert"␈α⊂programs␈α⊂will␈α⊂have␈α⊂a␈α⊂long␈α∂life,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓precisely␈α
because␈α
the␈αinformation␈α
they␈α
contain␈αis␈α
insufficiently␈α
context-free.␈α I␈α
think␈α
it␈α
will␈αoften
␈↓ ↓H␈↓prove impossible to use two or more of them in a larger system.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓Science Fiction Scenarios

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Minsky␈α⊂takes␈α⊂science␈α⊂fiction␈α⊂ideas␈α⊂too␈α∂seriously,␈α⊂because␈α⊂he␈α⊂underestimates␈α⊂the␈α⊂extent␈α∂to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓which␈α∂the␈α∂writers'␈α∂requirements␈α∂to␈α∂produce␈α∂a␈α∂story␈α∂have␈α∂distorted␈α∂their␈α∂imagination␈α⊂about␈α∂the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓possibilities␈α∃of␈α∀AI␈α∃and␈α∀robots.␈α∃ They␈α∀need␈α∃conflict␈α∀situations␈α∃between␈α∃approximately␈α∀equal
␈↓ ↓H␈↓antagonists␈α
in␈α
which␈α
important␈α
issues␈α
are␈α
seen␈α
to␈α
be␈α
at␈α
stake␈α
and␈α
in␈α
which␈α
individual␈α
effort␈α
makes
␈↓ ↓H␈↓a␈α
decisive␈α
and␈α
clear␈α
cut␈α
difference.␈α It␈α
is␈α
also␈α
necessary␈α
for␈α
the␈αauthor␈α
to␈α
hold␈α
out␈α
an␈α
idea␈αfrom␈α
his
␈↓ ↓H␈↓characters␈α
until␈α
the␈α∞climax.␈α
 Often␈α
this␈α
is␈α∞something␈α
that␈α
will␈α
occur␈α∞to␈α
most␈α
people␈α∞years␈α
before
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the situation arises.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_In␈α
considering␈αthe␈α
"HAL␈α
scenario",␈αone␈α
must␈α
distinguish␈αbetween␈α
programs␈α
that␈αgive␈α
advice
␈↓ ↓H␈↓from␈α
those␈αgiven␈α
operational␈αpowers.␈α
 One␈α
should␈αnot␈α
give␈αan␈α
ill-understood␈αprogram␈α
operational
␈↓ ↓H␈↓powers␈α∂in␈α∂an␈α∂area␈α⊂where␈α∂its␈α∂actions␈α∂could␈α∂result␈α⊂in␈α∂disaster.␈α∂ Secondly,␈α∂when␈α∂a␈α⊂program␈α∂gives
␈↓ ↓H␈↓advice, one can distinguish between using it to get ideas and following it trustingly.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_There␈αare␈αimportant␈αproblems␈αin␈αcomparing␈αthe␈αhuman␈αmotivational␈αstructure␈αwith␈αthat␈αof
␈↓ ↓H␈↓machines.␈α As␈αfar␈αas␈αI␈αcan␈αsee,a␈αhuman␈αdoesn't␈αusually␈αhave␈αan␈αoverall␈αgoal␈αto␈αwhich␈αall␈α
subgoals
␈↓ ↓H␈↓remain␈α
subordinate.␈α
 A␈α
goal␈αoften␈α
arises␈α
as␈α
a␈αkind␈α
of␈α
metaphor␈α
-␈αit␈α
is␈α
analogous␈α
to␈αsomething␈α
that
␈↓ ↓H␈↓satisfied␈αhunger␈αor␈αelicited␈αpersonal␈αapproval,␈αbut␈αthen␈αbecomes␈αentirely␈αindependent␈αof␈αits␈αcauses
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈αis␈α
pursued␈αeven␈αin␈α
opposition␈αto␈αthem.␈α
 Secondly,␈αthe␈αweight␈α
given␈αto␈αvarious␈α
accepted␈αlong
␈↓ ↓H␈↓range␈α
goals␈α
depends␈α
on␈αphysical␈α
state,␈α
i.e.␈α
when␈αa␈α
person␈α
is␈α
tired,␈α
his␈αideas␈α
of␈α
what␈α
goals␈αto␈α
pursue
␈↓ ↓H␈↓in␈αthe␈αnext␈αfive␈αyears␈αare␈αaltered.␈α Finally,␈αthe␈αhuman␈αmotivational␈αstructure␈αevolved␈αunder␈αquite
␈↓ ↓H␈↓different␈αconditions␈α
from␈αthose␈αof␈α
civilization␈αor␈αeven␈α
a␈αtribal␈αsociety.␈α
 As␈αa␈αresult,␈α
it␈αhas␈αall␈α
kinds
␈↓ ↓H␈↓of peculiarities.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_The␈αresult␈αof␈αall␈αthese␈αconsiderations␈αis␈αthat␈αit␈αwould␈αbe␈αboth␈αdifficult␈αand␈αinappropriate␈α
to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓make␈α
computer␈αprograms␈α
with␈αmotivational␈α
structures␈αlike␈α
those␈αof␈α
humans.␈α
 Obedience␈αcoupled
␈↓ ↓H␈↓with␈α⊂the␈α⊂requirement␈α⊂that␈α∂the␈α⊂human␈α⊂user␈α⊂be␈α∂given␈α⊂a␈α⊂full␈α⊂picture␈α∂of␈α⊂the␈α⊂consequences␈α⊂of␈α∂all
␈↓ ↓H␈↓contemplated␈αcourses␈αof␈αactions␈αseems␈αattainable␈αand␈αappropriate.␈α As␈αwe␈αunderstand␈αmore␈αabout
␈↓ ↓H␈↓intelligence,␈α
we␈α∞shall␈α
know␈α∞more␈α
about␈α∞appropriate␈α
control␈α∞mechanisms␈α
for␈α∞intelligent␈α
machines.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓My␈αpoint␈αisn't␈αso␈αmuch␈αto␈αsay␈αthat␈αthere␈αwill␈αbe␈αno␈αdangers␈αor␈αproblems␈αbut␈αrather␈αthat␈αthey␈αwill
␈↓ ↓H␈↓be different from those imagined by the science fiction writers.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ *20


␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ∧rComments on Licklider's paper.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Licklider␈α⊂is␈α⊂right␈α⊂that␈α⊂the␈α⊂new␈α⊂technologies␈α⊂of␈α⊂computers,␈α⊂communication␈α⊂and␈α∂databases
␈↓ ↓H␈↓provide␈αgreat␈αopportunities␈αto␈αimprove␈αgovernment␈αand␈αits␈αinteraction␈αwith␈αother␈αinstitutions␈αand
␈↓ ↓H␈↓with␈α↔individuals.␈α⊗ His␈α↔proposed␈α⊗vehicle␈α↔is␈α⊗a␈α↔government␈α⊗organized␈α↔␈↓↓"Multinet"␈↓␈α⊗combining
␈↓ ↓H␈↓communication,␈αdata␈αbases,␈α
transaction␈αmonitoring,␈αand␈α
computation.␈α Unfortunately,␈αthe␈α
␈↓↓Multinet␈↓
␈↓ ↓H␈↓idea␈α
misses␈α
major␈α
opportunities␈α
to␈α
benefit␈α∞citizens␈α
that␈α
can␈α
be␈α
implemented␈α
much␈α∞more␈α
quickly,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈α
the␈α
proposals␈α∞overemphasize␈α
government,␈α
require␈α
co-ordination␈α∞of␈α
activities␈α
that␈α∞can␈α
better
␈↓ ↓H␈↓be␈α∂developed␈α∂separately,␈α∂create␈α∂unnecessary␈α∞and␈α∂harmful␈α∂monopolies,␈α∂and␈α∂stifle␈α∂individual␈α∞and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓business initiative.  I also disagree with some of its technological judgments.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Licklider␈αseems␈α
to␈αenvisage␈αgovernment␈α
as␈αembodying␈αthe␈α
collective␈αwisdom␈αof␈α
society␈αand
␈↓ ↓H␈↓setting␈αup␈αinstitutions␈αand␈αlaws␈αthat␈αonce␈α␈↓↓"cast␈αinto␈αboth␈αlegislation␈αand␈αsoftware,␈α...␈αmay␈αcome␈αto
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓be␈αregarded␈αthe␈α
same␈αway␈αas␈α
physical␈αlaws␈αare␈α
regarded␈αnow:␈αirresistable,␈α
inviolable,␈αinescapable,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓part␈α
of␈α
nature,␈α
invariably␈αenforced,␈α
not␈α
the␈α
kind␈αof␈α
thing␈α
one␈α
complains␈αabout"␈↓.␈α
 For␈α
good␈α
or␈αill,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓government␈α∂plays␈α∂quite␈α∞a␈α∂different␈α∂role␈α∂in␈α∞every␈α∂society␈α∂in␈α∂the␈α∞world.␈α∂ Influencing␈α∂law␈α∂and␈α∞its
␈↓ ↓H␈↓interpretation␈α∞is␈α∂a␈α∞major␈α∞means␈α∂of␈α∞struggle␈α∂for␈α∞group␈α∞advantage␈α∂and␈α∞individual␈α∂wealth,␈α∞power
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈α
prestige.␈α
 Therefore,␈αgovernment␈α
law␈α
is␈αunlikely␈α
to␈α
resemble␈αnatural␈α
law␈α
in␈α
impartiality␈αand
␈↓ ↓H␈↓constancy in the forseeable future.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_A␈α∞consumer␈α∞is␈α∞better␈α∞served␈α∞when␈α∞manufacturers␈α∞compete␈α∞for␈α∞his␈α∞dollar␈α∞than␈α∞when␈α∞their
␈↓ ↓H␈↓lawyers␈α
compete␈α
for␈α
the␈α
favor␈α
of␈α
Congressmen,␈α
regulators,␈α
or␈α
judges␈α
-␈α
even␈α
when␈α
all␈α
these␈α
officials
␈↓ ↓H␈↓are␈αtrying␈αto␈αact␈αon␈αhis␈αbehalf.␈α Unfortunately,␈αsome␈αservices␈αare␈αnatural␈αmonopolies␈α
and␈αrequire
␈↓ ↓H␈↓regulation.␈α When␈αa␈αcomplex␈αof␈αnew␈αtechnologies␈αbecomes␈αavailable,␈αit␈αis␈αimportant␈αto␈αdistinguish
␈↓ ↓H␈↓what␈αare␈αthe␈αnatural␈αmonopolies␈αand␈αwhat␈αcan␈αbe␈αprovided␈αby␈αcompeting␈αservers.␈α The␈α␈↓↓Multinet␈↓
␈↓ ↓H␈↓proposal lumps them all together.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Thus␈α⊃communication␈α∩of␈α⊃raw␈α∩information␈α⊃may␈α∩remain␈α⊃a␈α∩natural␈α⊃monopoly,␈α∩but␈α⊃devices
␈↓ ↓H␈↓connected␈α∞to␈α∞the␈α∞communication␈α
network␈α∞are␈α∞not.␈α∞ The␈α
operation␈α∞of␈α∞particular␈α∞public␈α
databases
␈↓ ↓H␈↓such␈α∂as␈α∂a␈α∂national␈α∂library,␈α∂the␈α∂airline␈α∂guide␈α∂or␈α∂a␈α∂national␈α∂telephone␈α∂directory␈α∂seem␈α∂to␈α∂be␈α∂new
␈↓ ↓H␈↓natural␈α
monopolies,␈αalthough␈α
different␈αdatabases␈α
can␈αhave␈α
different␈αproprietors,␈α
and␈α
methods␈αof
␈↓ ↓H␈↓accessing␈αthe␈α
database␈αcan␈α
sometimes␈αcompete.␈α
 Computation␈αservices␈α
and␈αmuch␈α
so-called␈αvalue-
␈↓ ↓H␈↓added communication are not natural monopolies.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Here are some detailed comments:

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_5.␈α∂The␈α⊂stated␈α∂assumption␈α∂about␈α⊂programation␈α∂that␈α⊂␈↓↓"unless␈α∂it␈α∂is␈α⊂wisely␈α∂planned␈α⊂and␈α∂well
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓executed,␈αit␈αwill␈αbe␈α
disastrous␈αin␈αthe␈αlong␈α
run"␈↓␈αis␈αunsupported␈αby␈α
any␈αexample␈αof␈αwhat␈αbad␈α
things
␈↓ ↓H␈↓will␈α⊂happen␈α⊂if␈α⊂data-processing␈α⊂and␈α⊂communication␈α⊂continue␈α⊂unplanned.␈α⊂ To␈α⊂be␈α⊂a␈α⊂bit␈α⊂rude,␈α∂it
␈↓ ↓H␈↓sounds␈α∂like␈α∂self-serving␈α∂nonsense␈α∂on␈α∂behalf␈α⊂of␈α∂the␈α∂"public␈α∂policy␈α∂community"␈α∂and␈α⊂people␈α∂who
␈↓ ↓H␈↓want␈αthe␈α
authority␈αto␈α
regulate.␈α Certainly␈α
Licklider's␈α␈↓↓Scenario␈α
1␈↓␈αcan't␈α
be␈αcalled␈α
a␈αdisaster.␈α
 It␈αjust
␈↓ ↓H␈↓depicts␈α∩some␈α∩opportunities␈α∩missed␈α∩if␈α∩the␈α∩government␈α∩doesn't␈α∩take␈α∩them.␈α∩ Since␈α⊃co-ordination
␈↓ ↓H␈↓requires␈αthe␈αauthority␈αto␈αforbid␈αindependent␈αinitiative␈αin␈αthe␈αarea␈αto␈αbe␈αco-ordinated,␈αclaims␈αthat
␈↓ ↓H␈↓co-ordination is required are not just truisms and must be very well justified.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_I␈α
suppose␈α
the␈α
statement,␈α
␈↓↓"recognizing␈αthe␈α
potential␈α
significance␈α
of␈α
computer␈αcommunication,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓the␈α∂government␈α∂organizes␈α∂all␈α∂the␈α∂capabilities␈α⊂of␈α∂the␈α∂society␈α∂to␈α∂develop␈α∂and␈α∂exploit␈α⊂networking␈α∂in
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓socially␈αas␈α
well␈αas␈α
economically␈αproductive␈α
dimensions"␈↓␈αis␈α
not␈αintended␈α
to␈αbe␈α
taken␈αliterally.␈α
 No-one
␈↓ ↓H␈↓has␈αshown␈αthat␈αnetworking␈αhas␈αpotentials␈αjustifying␈αgovernment␈αpowers␈αthat␈αwere␈αhardly␈αasserted
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ *21


␈↓ ↓H␈↓even␈αduring␈αWorld␈αWar␈αII.␈α Licklider␈αshould␈αsay␈αprecisely␈αwhat␈αpowers␈αhe␈αwants␈αthe␈αgovernment
␈↓ ↓H␈↓to have, making explicit the cost to society of giving the goverment such power.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_6.␈α
We␈α
have␈αin␈α
Scenario␈α
2,␈α
␈↓↓"The␈αMultinet␈α
has␈α
supplanted␈α
the␈αpostal␈α
system␈α
for␈α
letters,␈αthe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓dial␈αtelephone␈α
system␈αfor␈α
conversations␈αand␈α
teleconferences,␈αstand-alone␈α
batch␈αprocessing␈αand␈α
time-
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓sharing␈α
systems␈α
for␈α
computation,␈α
and␈αmost␈α
filing␈α
cabinets,␈α
microfilm␈α
repositories,␈αdocument␈α
rooms,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓and␈αlibraries␈αfor␈αinformation␈αstorage␈αand␈αretrieval"␈↓.␈α Some␈αactivities,␈αlike␈αtelephone␈α
communication,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓are␈α⊃natural␈α⊃monopolies,␈α⊃and␈α⊃others,␈α⊃like␈α⊃providing␈α⊃computation␈α⊃services,␈α⊃are␈α⊃not.␈α⊃ Experience
␈↓ ↓H␈↓seems␈α∂to␈α∂show␈α∂that␈α⊂when␈α∂an␈α∂activity␈α∂is␈α⊂a␈α∂natural␈α∂monopoly,␈α∂it␈α⊂is␈α∂better␈α∂operated␈α∂as␈α⊂a␈α∂private
␈↓ ↓H␈↓monopoly␈αregulated␈αby␈αthe␈αgovernment.␈α Government␈αmonopoly␈αis␈αworse␈αand␈αso␈αis␈α
a␈αgovernment
␈↓ ↓H␈↓regulated␈αcartel␈α(like␈αthe␈αairlines␈αor␈αinterstate␈α
commerce).␈α The␈αreason␈αwhy␈αthe␈αlatter␈αtwo␈αwork␈α
out
␈↓ ↓H␈↓badly is again political struggle for advantage rewarding the best lawyers and the best politicians.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Several␈α∂recent␈α⊂events␈α∂raise␈α⊂fears␈α∂of␈α⊂the␈α∂cartelization␈α⊂of␈α∂computation␈α⊂and␈α∂communication.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓First,␈α⊂At&T␈α⊂turned␈α⊂over␈α⊂the␈α⊂␈↓↓Teletype␈↓␈α⊃network␈α⊂to␈α⊂Western␈α⊂Union␈α⊂and␈α⊂agreed␈α⊂not␈α⊃to␈α⊂compete.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Second,␈αIBM␈αsettled␈αthe␈αCDC␈αanti-trust␈αsuit␈αby␈αby␈αgiving␈αCDC␈αthe␈αService␈αBureau␈αCorporation
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈α∞agreeing␈α∞not␈α∞to␈α
compete␈α∞in␈α∞the␈α∞area.␈α∞ Third,␈α
the␈α∞Government's␈α∞anti-trust␈α∞suit␈α∞against␈α
IBM
␈↓ ↓H␈↓may␈α∪result␈α∩in␈α∪a␈α∩non-competitive␈α∪division␈α∪of␈α∩the␈α∪computer␈α∩business.␈α∪ Fourth,␈α∪the␈α∩specialized
␈↓ ↓H␈↓communication␈α
carriers␈α
are␈α
trying␈α
to␈α
persuade␈α
the␈α
government␈α
to␈α
protect␈α
them␈α
from␈α
competition
␈↓ ↓H␈↓by␈α∞regulating␈α∞the␈α∞services␈α∞AT&T␈α∞and␈α∞others␈α∞may␈α
offer.␈α∞ Worse␈α∞than␈α∞all␈α∞the␈α∞above␈α∞was␈α∞a␈α
␈↓↓New
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓York␈αTimes␈↓␈αeditorial␈α
proposing␈αto␈αgive␈αelectronic␈α
mail␈αto␈αthe␈αPostal␈α
Service.␈α Electronic␈αmail␈αis␈α
not
␈↓ ↓H␈↓a␈α
natural␈α
monopoly␈αat␈α
all,␈α
because␈αa␈α
mail␈α
terminal␈α
is␈αan␈α
ordinary␈α
product.␈α A␈α
terminal␈α
that␈αdials␈α
a
␈↓ ↓H␈↓recipient's␈αsimilar␈αterminal␈αcan␈αbe␈αmarketed␈αtoday␈αat␈αless␈αthan␈α$1000,␈αthe␈αcost␈αof␈αa␈αlocal␈αtelephone
␈↓ ↓H␈↓call␈α
is␈α
already␈α
less␈α
than␈α
that␈α
of␈α
a␈α
stamp,␈αand␈α
the␈α
cost␈α
of␈α
a␈α
coast-to-coast␈α
call␈α
after␈α
11pm␈α
is␈α21␈α
cents.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓If␈αthe␈αPostal␈αService␈αachieves␈αits␈αgoal␈αof␈αa␈α35␈αcent␈αcharge␈αby␈α1985␈αfor␈αa␈αfirst␈αclass␈αletter,␈αthey␈αwill
␈↓ ↓H␈↓be␈α∩wiped␈α∩out␈α∩by␈α∩$500␈α∩terminals.␈α∪ Of␈α∩course,␈α∩through␈α∩the␈α∩wonders␈α∩of␈α∪government␈α∩planning,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓individuals␈α⊂may␈α⊂be␈α⊂forbidden␈α⊂to␈α⊂communicate␈α∂in␈α⊂this␈α⊂way.␈α⊂ Moreover,␈α⊂electronic␈α⊂mail␈α⊂is␈α∂most
␈↓ ↓H␈↓useful␈α⊃in␈α⊂connection␈α⊃with␈α⊂other␈α⊃services␈α⊂performed␈α⊃by␈α⊂the␈α⊃same␈α⊂computer,␈α⊃and␈α⊃these␈α⊂services
␈↓ ↓H␈↓depend on the particular circumstances of the individual or organization.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_The␈α∂article␈α∞suggests␈α∂that␈α∂home␈α∞computers␈α∂require␈α∂government␈α∞"fostering".␈α∂ Notice␈α∂that␈α∞as
␈↓ ↓H␈↓soon␈α⊂as␈α⊂cheap␈α⊂microprocessors␈α⊂made␈α⊂it␈α⊂possible,␈α⊂a␈α⊂private␈α⊂home␈α⊂computer␈α⊂industry␈α⊂arose␈α∂that
␈↓ ↓H␈↓offers␈α
dozens␈α
of␈αproducts␈α
through␈α
hundreds␈α
of␈αstores␈α
and␈α
supports␈α
more␈αthan␈α
five␈α
magazines␈α-␈α
all
␈↓ ↓H␈↓before Government even contemplated fostering it.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_7.␈α
The␈αarticle␈α
shares␈αthe␈α
common␈αsystem␈α
programmer's␈αself-important␈α
obsession␈αwith␈α
secrecy
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈α∞privacy␈α∂and␈α∞exaggerates␈α∂the␈α∞possibilities␈α∞for␈α∂crime␈α∞and␈α∂other␈α∞misbehavior␈α∂that␈α∞inadequate
␈↓ ↓H␈↓secrecy␈αcreates.␈α It␈αalso␈αputs␈αthe␈αemphasis␈αon␈αpreventing␈αmore␈αand␈αmore␈αtenuous␈αevils␈αrather␈αthan
␈↓ ↓H␈↓on␈α∩how␈α∩to␈α∩do␈α∩positive␈α∩good.␈α∪ Thus␈α∩the␈α∩Multics␈α∩effort␈α∩produced␈α∩a␈α∪non-cost-effective␈α∩system
␈↓ ↓H␈↓because of its obsession with security.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_8.␈α∪Packet␈α∪switching␈α∪is␈α∩a␈α∪worthwhile␈α∪technology,␈α∪and␈α∩ARPA␈α∪deserves␈α∪much␈α∪credit␈α∩for
␈↓ ↓H␈↓developing␈α
it,␈α∞but␈α
ARPA's␈α∞natural␈α
tendency␈α∞to␈α
overestimate␈α∞what␈α
it␈α∞has␈α
sponsored␈α∞has␈α
led␈α∞to␈α
a
␈↓ ↓H␈↓neglect␈αof␈αpossibilities␈αfor␈αusing␈αthe␈αalready␈αubiquitous␈αdial␈αnetwork.␈α Elsewhere␈αI␈αhave␈αproposed
␈↓ ↓H␈↓that␈α
much␈α∞useful␈α
computer-computer␈α∞communication,␈α
including␈α
messages,␈α∞file␈α
transfer␈α∞and␈α
login
␈↓ ↓H␈↓capabilities␈αof␈αARPAnet␈αcan␈αbe␈αachieved␈αfor␈α
a␈αfew␈αthousand␈αdollars␈αcapital␈αcost␈αif␈αARPAnet␈α
like
␈↓ ↓H␈↓protocols for using a telephone dialer are developed.  This proposal is called ␈↓↓Dialnet␈↓.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_9.␈α∞The␈α
greatest␈α∞opportunities␈α
for␈α∞improvement␈α∞in␈α
government␈α∞that␈α
computers␈α∞permit␈α∞is␈α
to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓make government more accessible to citizens.  Here are some proposals:
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ *22


␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ αh9.1.␈α
Every␈αgovernment␈α
document␈αthat␈α
is␈α
required␈αby␈α
the␈α␈↓↓Freedom␈α
of␈α
Information␈αAct␈↓
␈↓ ↓H␈↓to␈α∂be␈α∞publically␈α∂accessible␈α∞should␈α∂be␈α∞kept␈α∂in␈α∞computer␈α∂files␈α∞accessible␈α∂nationwide␈α∂by␈α∞telephone.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓This␈α⊃includes␈α⊃the␈α⊃Federal␈α⊃Register,␈α⊃the␈α⊃Congressional␈α⊃Record,␈α⊃the␈α⊃files␈α⊃on␈α⊃the␈α⊃status␈α⊃of␈α⊂bills
␈↓ ↓H␈↓(already␈α
kept␈α
by␈α∞Congress␈α
for␈α
its␈α
own␈α∞use␈α
in␈α
computers),␈α
court␈α∞decisions␈α
and␈α
the␈α
status␈α∞of␈α
court
␈↓ ↓H␈↓cases,␈α∂environmental␈α∂impact␈α∂statements,␈α∂and␈α∞other␈α∂rationalizations␈α∂of␈α∂government␈α∂decisions␈α∞and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓regulations.␈α∀ ␈↓αImplementation␈α∃of␈α∀this␈α∃should␈α∀begin␈α∀right␈α∃away,␈↓␈α∀because␈α∃organizations␈α∀and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓individuals␈αcan␈αacquire␈αcomputer␈αterminals␈αmuch␈αfaster␈αthan␈αthe␈αGovernment␈αcan␈αcreate␈αthe␈α
data
␈↓ ↓H␈↓bases.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ αh9.2.␈α⊂Licklider␈α⊂proposes␈α∂to␈α⊂improve␈α⊂the␈α∂Government's␈α⊂ability␈α⊂to␈α⊂extract␈α∂information
␈↓ ↓H␈↓from␈α∞businesses␈α∞and␈α∞individuals␈α∞by␈α∞putting␈α∞monitoring␈α∞functions␈α∞in␈α∞␈↓↓Multinet␈↓.␈α∞ I␈α∞think␈α∞this␈α∞has
␈↓ ↓H␈↓great␈α≠beneficial␈α≠possibilities␈α≠provided␈α≤the␈α≠information␈α≠is␈α≠not␈α≠abused,␈α≤and␈α≠burdensome
␈↓ ↓H␈↓requirements␈α∞of␈α∞keeping␈α∞information␈α∞in␈α∞the␈α
government's␈α∞preferred␈α∞form␈α∞are␈α∞not␈α∞imposed.␈α
 But
␈↓ ↓H␈↓how␈α∃about␈α∀not␈α∃allowing␈α∀the␈α∃Government␈α∀to␈α∃require␈α∀an␈α∃individual␈α∀or␈α∃business␈α∃to␈α∀furnish
␈↓ ↓H␈↓information the Government already has in its files?

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ αh9.3.␈α
A␈αmuch␈α
greater␈α
long␈αrange␈α
opportunity␈αis␈α
much␈α
harder␈αto␈α
realize.␈α
 Every␈αpolicy
␈↓ ↓H␈↓generating␈α∀and␈α∀regulation␈α∪generating␈α∀organization␈α∀should␈α∪keep␈α∀active␈α∀a␈α∀question␈α∪answering
␈↓ ↓H␈↓program␈α∂about␈α∞the␈α∂content␈α∞and␈α∂rationale␈α∂of␈α∞its␈α∂policies.␈α∞ The␈α∂object␈α∞is␈α∂to␈α∂answer␈α∞automatically
␈↓ ↓H␈↓those␈αquestions␈αthat␈αcan␈αbe␈αso␈αanswered␈α
automatically␈αand␈αtherefore␈αmake␈αthe␈αpolicy␈αmakers␈α
more
␈↓ ↓H␈↓accessible␈αto␈α
people␈αwith␈αquestions␈α
that␈αcan't.␈α Each␈α
person␈αresponsible␈αfor␈α
policies␈αshould␈αspend␈α
a
␈↓ ↓H␈↓few␈αpercent␈αof␈αhis␈αtime␈αdealing␈αwith␈αthe␈αquestions␈αnot␈αanswered␈αautomatically.␈α ␈↓↓The␈αultimate␈αgoal
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓would␈α
be␈α
that␈α
a␈α
person␈α
confronted␈α
with␈α
a␈α
regulation␈α
whose␈α
application␈α
is␈α
unjust␈α
in␈α
his␈α
particular
␈↓ ↓H␈↓↓case␈α∞should␈α∞always␈α∂be␈α∞able␈α∞to␈α∂reach␈α∞a␈α∞person␈α∞with␈α∂the␈α∞authority␈α∞to␈α∂make␈α∞an␈α∞exception.␈↓␈α∂ The␈α∞full
␈↓ ↓H␈↓achievement of this goal will require major advances in artificial intelligence.